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1、南京航空航天大学博士学位论文中国电力经济运行规律研究姓名：仇伟杰申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：刘思峰20060601南京航空航天大学博士论文资产投资、GDP、人口数量4要素之间的关系，预计2010年全国装机容量将超过7亿kw，其增长率将超过GDP的增长。进入新世纪，电力工业面临着空前的发展机遇和挑战，本文旨在体现国家能源发展战略的要求，以科学发展观为指导，为构建节约型的电力产业结构和适合中国国情的电力消费结构、为构建和谐社会、建设节约型社会做出力所能及的微薄贡献。关键词：灰色理论；控制理论；电力工业；国民经济；系统评价；周期分析；需求预测；政策建议．III中国电
2、力经济运行规律研究AbstractElectricity,asahuman'sexistentdemand,animportantbasisforeconomicdevelopmentandsocialprogress,islinkedtothenationaleconomiclifelinesandnationalsecuritystrategic"material”.Itisanimportantfoundationforsocio-economicsustainabledevelopmentandhasveryimportantpositionsinthewell-offs
3、ocietyofcomprehensiveconstruction.Onthebasisofanalyzingelectricindustrialdevelopmentbackgroundandtheoreticalresearch,thispaperstudiessupplyanddemandlawofpowerconsumptioninchina,andanalyzedynamicrelationbetweenpowerdemandandeconomyrelevantelementswhichinfluencepowerdemand(IncludingGDP,investme
4、ntinfixedassets,sizeofpopulation)systematically,constructsmanytargetsdecisionmathematicalmodelsofdevelopmentofpowerdemand.China'spowerindustryisfacingnewchallengesandopportunities,Appropriatelyanalyzesuperiorityconditionsandlimitingfactorswhichourcountrycurrentandafutureperiodoftimepowerdeman
5、denvironmentwillfaceinthispaper.Withourcountryappearinglargeareapowershortageasthebreakthroughpointinrecentyears,fromsystemreason,supplyanddemand,coalandelectricity’srelationsandsoonmanyanglesangletoexplainourcountrypowershortageoriginthatproduces,furtherelaboratedbecausepowershortagebroughtt
6、oChinapolitics,economyandsocietyinfluences,brieflyproposeChinesepowerprospectsfordevelopmentandpolicysuggestion.Usinggreysystemstheoryandstatespacetransitionmatrix,thedispersedstructuresolveofmodelGM(1,N)isstudiedindepth;HasanalyzedChinesecurrentpowerregiondevelopmentlevel,powerdemandandindus
7、trialstructure、elasticcoefficientofelectricityconsumption’scontrolsystem,powerdemandandfixedassetsinvestmentdynamiceconomicadjustmentandcontrol,andsoon,aseriesofpowereconomicproblem.Relativetothefieldofmorematureeconomiccycleresearch,thedevel
