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ID:36460058
大小:2.77 MB
页数:98页
时间:2019-05-10
《基于混沌神经网络的热电厂电价预测及热电优化分配的研究》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、北京交通大学硕士学位论文基于混沌神经网络的热电厂电价预测及热电优化分配的研究姓名:罗欣申请学位级别:硕士专业:电力系统及其自动化指导教师:周渝慧20071201J£塞銮遁厶堂亟±坐位监塞ABSTRACTABSTRACT:Withthedevelopmentofthecombinedheatandpower(CHP)systemandtheelectricpowermarket,theCHPenterpriseswillfacetoconnecttothenationalnetworkbypriceco
2、mpetitioninthepowermarket.Ononehand,itisimportanttousetherelativehistoricdatatoforecastthefuturemarketclearingelectricitypricetoobtainmoreopportunitytoimprovetheincome.Ontheotherhand,theenterpriseprofitmealssubtractthecostfromtheincome.Soinordertoimprov
3、etheprofit,theenterpriseneedstoreducethecosttoo.Becauseofthedifferentcharactersofthegenerator,itisimportanttofindthemosteffectivecombinedwaytoreducethecost.Inthispaper,wegiveaneffectivewaytosolvewiththetwoproblems.First,bycalculatingthechaoticcharactere
4、xponents-correiationdimension,wcfoundthattheelectricpriceandloadtimeseriesarenotrandomseriesbutchaoticones.SoitgivesUSanewacquaintancetothecomplexityofpriceandloadtimeseries,andtheshort-termelectricpricecouldbeforecastedthroughchaostheory.Second,basedon
5、phasespacereconstructionofchaotictimeseries,theshort—termpriceforecastingapproachonmulti-variablephasespacereconstructiontheoryandimprovedchaoticneuralnetworkispresented.Itmayadequatelyreflectthevaryingruleofthedataitself,inordertoimprovetheaccuracyofpr
6、iceforecasting.Third,inordertofmdthedistinguishingfeatureoftheeconomicCHPdispatch,thispaperresearchesonthedifferentcharactersofthegeneratorinthesystem.Andwefoundtherearetwokindsofthermalsystemindifferententerprises.Theyareheadersystemandunitsystem.Sothi
7、spaperconstructsthemodelsrespectivelywhendealingwithdifferentthermalsystem.Forth,itisbecausetherearemanydesignobjectivescoupledwithtighterconstraintsneedtobeincorporated.WemaketheeconomicClIPdispatchbeformulatedasamulti—objectiveoptimizationproblem.Anim
8、provedparticleswarmoptimizationalgorithmisusedtoachievethereasonabletradcoffbetweenmultipleobjectivesincludingthetotalgenerationcost,powergenerationdeviationandheatgenerationdeviation.Thedecisionmakerscanchoosedifferentschemeindi
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