电力需求侧市场运营的若干问题研究

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1、华北电力大学（保定）博士学位论文电力需求侧市场运营的若干问题研究姓名：周明申请学位级别：博士专业：电力系统及其自动化指导教师：倪以信20051101摘要AbstractThederegulationtopowerindustriesaroundtheworldhasbeenundergoingmorethantwentyyearswithlargeamountofexperienceachieved．Duetotheimportanceandparticularityofpowerindustries，keepingpowersystemsefficient，eco

2、nomic，safeandreliablereal—timeoperation，andlong—termresourceadequacyandsustainabledevelopmentaretheobjectivesofsuccessfulpowermarketsoperation．Whileitisemphasizedingenerationcompetitionandtransmissionopenaccess，thederegulationtoelectricitydemandisessentialtopowermarkets’furtherdevelopm

3、ent．Fromthetechnicalandeconomicalpointsofview，thedissertationfocusesondeeplyresearchingsomeofthesetechnicalandeconomicalproblemsfacingelectricitydemandsidesinpowermarkets．Electricitypricesarethefocusofpowermarkets．Accurateforecastingelectricitypricehaslargeeffectsonallparticipants’bene

4、fits．Afterananalysistotheformationmechanismofelectricityprices，especialmarketclearingprice(MCP)inpowermarkets，andtotheconventionalforecastingMCPapproaches，thethesisproposesanovelapproachforthefirsttimethattheresidualerroroftheconventionalforecastingmodelisalsomodeledforforecasting，andt

5、heforecastedmodelerrorsarethenusedtomodifytheforecastedpricesinordertoimprovetheaccuracyofforecasting．Theforecastederrorsarealsoappliedtoestimatetheconfidenceintervaloftherealprices．ForthosepricespikesthataredifficulttObedealtwithbytheconventionalapproaches，waveletanalysiswithgoodlocal

6、izedcharacteristicisintroducedtoforecasttheseverychangeablepricesintegratedwiththeconventionalapproach．Thenumericaltestsshowtheproposedapproachiseasyformodelingwithmeritsinimprovingtheaccuracyofforecasting，andprovidingsufficientinformation．Thethesissystematicallydiscussesthenewlyemergi

7、ngdecision—makingproblemsoftheloadserviceentities(LSEs)procuringelectricenergyinpowermarkets．BasedonModernPortfolioTheorNtheprocurementdecision—makingframeworkconsistedofthreesubproblems：marketanalysis，portfolioanalysisandportfolioselection，isproposed，andthegeneralprocurementmodelfor