我国能源产业项目投资机会评价及投资决策研究

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1、同济大学经济与管理学院博士学位论文我国能源产业项目投资机会评价及投资决策研究姓名：谢胜强申请学位级别：博士专业：技术经济与管理指导教师：陈德棉20041120ReasearchontheinvestmentopportunityevaluationandinvestmentdecisioninenergyindustryofourcountryAbstractInrecent20years，Chineseeconomydevelopsrapidly．DuringthiScourse，theenergyindu

2、stry，asaveryimportantrole，SUStainsandpushesthedevelopmentofeconomy．A1thoughthedevelopmentofChineseenergyindustryisgrowingfastwitheconomy，theenergyindustrystillfacessomedifficultyinwhichthemajoroneiShowtoevaluatetheinvestmentopportunitiesofenergyindustryandh

3、owtoreachthebestinvestmentdeciSion．ThiSpapermakesacarefulStudyOffthetwodirectandinfluentialvariablesoftheenergymarket：thepriceandthesupply-demandofenergyproduct，inanswertotheabovequestion．ThisresearchbringsUStoabetterunderstandingofenergyindustry．DiSCUSSion

4、willbemadeonthecharacterofenergyproductsandtheHatureofenergyprojectinvestment．InacreativewaythiSpaperdividestheinvestmentopportunitiesofenergyprojectintotwoparts：oneisbasedupontheobjectirefactorsofinvestmentprojectandtheotherisbaseduponthesubjectirefactorso

5、finvestmentproject．Moreoverthispaperestablishesageneralmodelofevaluation．Subsequentlythispaperpointsoutthefeasibi1ityoftheprojectthatcanbeaccuratelyevaluatedbytealoptiOffmethod．BasedOnthiS，thispaperUSeSdynamicplanningmethodtoconstructtheevaluationmodeI，whic

6、hincludesinvestmentprojectsondifferentphasesandflexibleinvestmentprojects．Theriskandthetimearetheimportantfactorsfordecision-makinginprojectinvestmentofenergyindustry．ThispaperwilIpresentatthesametimetheriskinenergyindustryintermsofitscharacter，type，distrib

7、utionandself—dominoeffect．RiskcontrolmodelandmanagingmeasuresforinvestmentriskarealsoestablishedinthiSpaper．Accordingtothefluctuationinenergyindustryeconomycycleandmereeconomycycle，thispaperindicatesthebasicprincipleaboutthetimechoice．Moreoveritsetsupatimec

8、hoicemodelaboutenergyindustryinvestment，takingintoconsiderationtheinvestmentsealeandtheconstructioncycle．Keywords：energy，investmentopportunity，evaluation，deciSion声明本人郑重声明：本论文是在导师的指导下，独立进行研究工作所取得的成果，撰写成