区域能源、环境及经济协调发展理论与方法

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1、天津大学博士学位论文区域能源、环境及经济协调发展理论与方法姓名：张国英申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：郑丕谔20070401应区域具体情况并与环境和经济相协调发展的能源发展框架，避免了单纯依靠计量经济学模型的局限性——如对经济发展速度、经济体系变化等具体情况进行描述的难度。本文综合运用了区域经济、投资学、系统论、循环经济、煤化工以及环境工程等理论，广泛搜集国内外有关能源发展的资料和实例，同时对国内尤其是山西省的煤炭行业现有的经营活动、开发政策及发展趋势作了大量调查研究，力求理论研究与实证研究相结合，定性分析与定量分析相结合，注重研究结果的实战

2、性及可操作性，探索出了一套以煤炭为主的区域能源协调发展的理论与方法体系。关键词：能源、环境和经济，协调发展，战略分析，投资决策2ABSTRACTSettingabouttorealizeharmoniousdevelopmentofenergy，enviommentandeconomy,thebasictheoryanddecision-makingmethodsystemofe1101"鼢／resourcesdevelopmentinShanxiprovinceisdiscussedinthedissertation．Theharmoniousdevelo

3、pmentstratigyanalysisofenergydevelopmentiscardedonemphatically．Theinvestmentportfolioiscarriedontothesuate#cpainswhichmobtainedfromabovementioned‘analysis，andconcreteimplementationofeachplanisconceivedsimultaneously．Throughanalysis，thecoordinatedenergy,environmentandeconomysystemis

4、established．Withthesystem,theenergyresources，especiallycoall'eSOUl'CeofShanxiprovincewillbeexploitedandutilizedeffectively．Themaincontributionsinthisdissertationareasfollows：(1)Inviewoftheriskcharacteristicofenergyprojectinvestment，portfoliotheoryisusedforreferenceandrandomvariable

5、strate西csituationisin臼oducediilthe．process‘of．investmentdecision-making，SOinvestmentproportionofeverystrategicplanisdeterminedbythisway；(2)Smdingtheenergyproblems0nthebasisofharmoniousdevelopment，integratingeverykeyelementwhichhasrelationwithefficientexploitationandutilizationofene

6、rgy,especiallytakingenvironmentfactorasthemainbodyofthe．systeni,theideaofharmoniousdevelopmentofenergy，enviromentprotectionandeconomyiscarriedoutthroughallthedissertation；(3)Applyingtwoforecastmethods_——-】∞ultivariatelinearregressionanalysisandroughguessofmaincoalconsumptiondepartm

7、ents，combiningquantitativeandqualitativeanalyses，thecoaldemandofShanxiprovinceduringtheeleventhfiveyearplanperiodiscalculated．Whenforecastedbywayofroughguess，theinfluencesofpoficyandtechnicalchangesaretakenintoconsidertoensuretheforecasteprecision；(4)Atpresent,thedifferenceofdistri

8、ct,developingperiodsanddev