人口老龄化对贸易收支的影响

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1、厦门大学博士学位论文人口老龄化对贸易收支的影响姓名：李晴申请学位级别：博士专业：世界经济指导教师：庄宗明20090401AbstractWiththeadvancementofworldpopulationaging，moreandmorecountriesbegantofaceaseriesofissuecausedbypopulmionaging，andtheseissuesarerelatedtomanyaspectsofeconomy．Atthemeantime，谢tllthefurtherdevelopmentofeconomicglobalization,international

2、tradedevelopsrapidly,andworldtradepatternsandintemationaltradeformsarechanging．Thedissertationmadeastudyoftheinfluenceofpopulationagingonthetradebalanceundersuchabackground，anditismeaningfultothestudiesofworldeconomyandpopulationaging．First，basedonLifeCycleHypothesis，thedissertationestablishedatheor

3、ymodelbyadjustingandsimplifyingtheclassicmodel，andthen,carriedoutasimulationbasedonthetheorymodel，totakeatheoreticaldiscussionontheinfluenceofpopulationagingonthetradebalance．Thetheoreticalanalysisshowsthatpopulationagingcouldworsenthetradebalance．Second，basedonthetheoreticalanalysis，thedissertation

4、carriedoutempiricalanalysisfromtwoaspects，worldandChina．Inworld’Saspect，thedissertationanalyzedtheinfluenceofpopulationagingonthetotaltradebalanceandthebilateraltradebalancebyusingBinaryChoiceModel．InChina’SaspecLthedissertationanalyzedthetradebalancebetweenChinaanddevelopedcountriesbyusingPanelData

5、Model．Theresultofempiricalanalysisshowsthat，comparedtodevelopingcountries，thetradebalanceofdevelopedcountriesismorelikelytobeinfluencedbypopulationaging．Third，basedonthepreviousanalysis，thedissertationtooksomefactors(thedifferenceinconsumption，demographictransitionandthedifferenceinaging，socialsecur

6、ity,foreigndirectinvestment)whichwereignoredintheprevioustheoreticalmodelandempiricalanalysisintoconsideration．Thediscussionshowsthat，becauseofthedifferenceinthesefactors，influenceofpopulationagingontradebalanceindifferentcountriesiSdifferent，andalsodifferentfromtheoreticalinfluence．Finally,onthebas

7、isofthepreviousresearch，thedissertationcomestotheconclusionthatpopulationagingcouldaffectthetradebalanceincertainextent，buttheinfluenceisconditionalandespeciallydifferentbetweendevelopedcountriesandde