城市燃气输配管网系统的危机管理研究

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1、天津大学博士学位论文城市燃气输配管网系统的危机管理研究姓名：付聪申请学位级别：博士专业：工程管理指导教师：尹贻林20090201ABSTRACTThefailureofurbangaspipelinealwayscausefiredisasterandexplosion，theaccidentcanthreatenpeopleandpropertyinthevicinityofthefailurelocation．Itisimportantandnecessarytostudythefailurecrisisofurbangaspipeline．Theoriesan

2、dmethodologiesofriskanalysis，earlywaningandemergencymanagementareintegratedunderthestructureofcrisismanagementtheory．Throughreviewingdeficiencyoftheresearchesonurbangaspipelinesysteminthesethreefields，thisdissertationmainlystudiedthefailureofurbangaspipelinesystemBasedonthecrisismanage

3、menttheory．1．Intheresearchonriskofpipeline．Firstly,usingtheFTA(faulttreeanalysis)toimplementasystemicallyriskidentificationofurbangaspipeline．Second，restructuringthepipelineriskindexsystemtoimprovetheanalysisandassessmentofriskmoreefficiencyandapplicableforgaspipelinesystem．Then，combin

4、ingthefaultprobabilityandeffectsanalysisbyRBI(riskbasedinspection)methodtoquantitativeriskevaluationandriskranking．Ariskassessmentsystemisconstructedbyintegratingthisthree—stepmethod．Itprovidesanentirepipelineriskassessmentwithidentification，analysis，evaluationandranking．2．Onthebaseofs

5、tudiesonapplicablescopeforgasleakageanddiffusionmodelsingaspipeline，modelsoffailureconsequenceanalysis，includingholeleakage，Gaussiandiffusion，jetfireandexplosion，areselectedjustforfaultofgaspipeline．Then，accordingtothecharactersofgaspipeline，simplifiedmodelsareproposed．Basedonthem，afai

6、lureforecastwaningmodelisobtained．Theasdamagescopeandfatalitiesiscalculatedandwarningrankingisdefinedconsistenttoinitiaterankingingaspipelineemergencyplan．3．ProgramsbasedonGISaredevelopedwithfailureforecastwarningmodelviaVC++programmingandMATLAB．Afunctionmoduleoffaultconsequenceanalysi

7、sisobtained．WimtheadvantagesofvisualizationinGIS．thewarningareaofgasleakagelocationcarlbedivisional，andintegratedemergencyresponseisrealized．Morescientificdecisionsandeffectivesupportscanbeacquiredbythisfunction．AconceptualframeworkofgaspipelineemergencyplatformisproposedbasedonGIS．4