区域耕地生产力稳定性评价体系研究——以河北省为例

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1、河北农业大学博士学位论文区域耕地生产力稳定性评价体系研究——以河北省为例姓名：王树涛申请学位级别：博士专业：土壤学指导教师：许皞;李博文20080610降水量和化肥施用量6个主控因素，其影响度的总和达到了78．8％。通过各影响因素的影响度综合分析可知，自然资源、固定资产和可变要素投入的波动性变化是河北省耕地生产力波动形成的主要原因。关键词：耕地生产力；粮食产量；趋势性；波动性；稳定性StudyonEvaluationSystemofRegionalCultivatedlandsProductivityStability——acaseinHebeiprovi

2、nceAuthor：WangShu-taoMajor：SoilScienceTutor：ProfessorXuhaoProfessorLiB0．wenAbstractGrainproductioniSthebasisofsocialstabilityanddevelopment，therefore。solvethefoodproblemwillbecomeabasicobjectiveforsocialandeconomicdevelopment．However,晰thincreasingofpopulmionandresourceexhaustion，t

3、heconflictionbetweenhumandemandsforfoodstrengthenandcultivatedlandreducingisgraduallyintensified．ProductivityiSthebasiccharacteristicoffarmland．Thestabilityofproductivityimpliesthestructure，functionanddevelopmentaldirections，whichhasbecomeahotissuetosolvethecurrentfoodsecurity．The

4、refore，howtoensurethecontinuousstabilityoffarmlandproductivitywerethekeytoeaseconflictionbetweenpeopleandlanduse．Nevertheless，therearenointegratedtheories，meansandmethodsonthestabilityoffarmlandproductivityatpresent．Basedonpreviousresearch，thepaperfocusonHebeiprovincecaseanddiscus

5、esthetheoryandmethodsonassessstabilityoffarmlandproductivityinviewoftrendsandfluctuations．nlemainfindingsasfollows：1．StabilitytheoryandmethodologyoffarmlandproductivityBasedontheecosystemfunctionoffarmlandandcharacteristicsoffoodproductivity,thepaperpointedoutconnotationoffoodprod

6、uctivitystabilityincludeslong—termsustainedandstablegrowthofoutputinfoodproductionandminimizefluctuations．ByEmpiricalmoaedecomposition(EMD)method，thefoodproductivitywasdividedintotrendsandfluctuations．Andthen，stabilitymodelsfitthetwofactorseffectivelytobuildevaluationsystemofprodu

7、ctivestability．2．StabilityevaluationoffarmlandproductivityinHebeiprovince(1)From1978to2005，thestabilityofgrainoutputinHebeiProvincewasfluctuatingfromincreasetodecrease．Therearetwosignificantstages．ThestabilityofcropproductivityWasworstfrom2003to2005，recessioninastageofproductivity

8、．Astostabilityindexfrom1978to2001