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1、1April2019AsiaPacificEquityResearchTelecommunicationServicesResearchAnalystsColinMcCallum,CA85221016514colin.mccallum@credit-suisse.comSunilTirumalai912267773714sunil.tirumalai@credit-suisse.comVarunAhuja,CFA6562123017varun.ahuja@credit-suisse.comDannyChan60327232082danny.ch
2、an@credit-suisse.comSoyunShin82237073736soyun.shin@credit-suisse.comBillyLee85221016529billy.lee@credit-suisse.comViralShah912267773827viral.shah@credit-suisse.comKylieWan65621223004kylie.wan@credit-suisse.comAsianTelecomsSectorQUARTERLY4Q18:Quarterlyearningsandtrendanalyse
3、rFigure1:YoYcellularrevenuegrowthbymarket20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q18MalaysiaIndiaSingaporePhilippinesTaiwanChinaIndonesiaThailandKoreaSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimates■Onlyt
4、hePhilippinesandIndiadeliverrevenuegrowthYoY.4Q18wasanotherverychallengingquarterfortheAsiaex-Japantelecomssector.OnlythePhilippinesandIndiarecordedYoYcellulargrowth,thoughinIndiaonlyJiogrewrevenue,whileinthePhilippinesonlyGlobegrew.CellularrevenuegrowthinChinaandTaiwanwerea
5、ffectedbyIFRS15,governmentpoliciesandheightenedcompetition.■RecoverycontinuesinIndonesia:Forthesecondconsecutivequarter,IndonesiadeliveredthestrongestQoQrevenuegrowth,asdiscountswereremovedandcompetitiveintensitydeclinedfollowingprepaidregistration.■StockCalls:Afterasharpsha
6、repricerally,weremoveChinaTowerCorp(CTC)asatoppickandreplaceitwithSoftBank(primarilyforitsinternetandchipexposure).WeretainDTACasatoppick.Afterwinningallocationsofboth1800MHzand850/900MHzspectrums,andarmedwith60MHzof2300MHzspectrum,DTAC’snetworkqualityisimprovingand,post-con
7、cession,itscoststructureisleaner;ourFY19earningforecastis28.5%aheadofconsensus.WealsoretainIntouch,whichcurrentlytradesata17.9%discounttoitsholdinginassociateAIS,andoffersa4.6%dividendyield.OurtopUNDERPERFORMcallsincludeChunghwa(expensiveandsufferingrevenuedeclines),DiGi(exp
8、ensive)andTrueCorp(expensive,balancesheetweakdespiteimprovingcompetition).D
