全球保险业：最后的防线

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1、ABGlobalResearch5April2019EquitiesGlobalInsuranceInsuranceGlobalGlobalInsurance–ThelastlineofdefenceGlobalInsurance–howtonavigatecomplexityThesector’sdefensivecharacteristics,resilientearningsandattractivedividendsprovidearelative’safehaven’withinbroaderfinancia

2、ls.However,complexityishighanddisclosurelow.OurGlobalInsurancecall(presentation)aimstohelpinvestorsnavigatethesectorhighlightingkeysectorthemesandstockideas.Replay:+44(0)2071369233

3、52251811.Keythemes:1)lowerforlonger,2)M&Aand3)wheretofindgrowth?1)Lowbondyieldscon

4、tinuetostraininsurers’balancesheetsasinvestmentincomedeclines.InLifetheimpactisgradualandmayleadtoanextensionofbenigncreditconditionsnear-term.Lowyieldsarenegativelong-termandmakeuscautiousonupsidepotentialinUSandEuro.ForP&C,loweryieldspressureshort-terminvestmen

5、tincome,earningsandRoEsplacingfocusonunderwritingprofitability.ThisimpactsbothUS(re)insurersandEuropeerswithhighUSexposure.Longtermreturnsareless-ratesensitivethaninothersectors.2)ProlongedlowyieldswilllikelydriveM&A,particularlyforEuroinsurerswhereappetiteandfir

6、epowerarehigh(c.$150bn).Insurersseemdisciplined;focusingonbolt-onM&A(targetingAsia,US)butvaluationsinmoreattractiveareas(e.g.AM,P&C)maybeprohibitive.3)We’remorepositiveonEM(Asia,SA,Brazil)ashighertop-linegrowthleadstostrongEPSgrowthandRoEexpansion.TopGlobalinsura

7、ncestockideasThetopglobalinsurancestockideasfollowdefensivepositioningbutwithclearcatalyststodrivere-ratingandoutperformance.USP&C:TheHartford,AIGandIntactFinancialhavecatalyststhatcoulddrivere-rating.USLife:AmeripriseFinancialandVOYAaremoreleveredtoequitymarkets

8、thanlong-terminterestrateswhilstAssuranthasahigherP&Cmixprovidingscopeforoutperformancegiventhecurrentoutlook.EuroLife:Prudentialremainsoneofthemostundervaluedstockswithclearcatalysts;NNGroupprovidesprotectedcapitalreturns(8-10%ofMktCapto2020E).EuroP&C:Allianz,Ba

9、loiseandRSAallscreenwithdefensivebalancesheetsandcatalyststoout-perform.Asia:wearebuyersofPingAnforgrowthandapotentialbuybackcatalyst.Wealsonoterecentinitiatio