中国半导体2019：状况不佳，但发展前景良好

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1、2April2019AsiaPacific/TaiwanEquityResearchSemiconductorDevicesSEMICONChina2019ResearchAnalystsRandyAbrams,CFA886227156366randy.abrams@credit-suisse.comChaolienTseng85221016795chaolien.tseng@credit-suisse.comHaasLiu886227156365haas.liu@credit-suisse.comSUPPLYCHAINRESEARCHAlowerp

2、rofile,yetstillaggressivedevelopmentpushcontinuesFigure1:ChinasemicompaniesgotocapitalmarketsforthenextfundingSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseresearch■Semiconshowsalowerprofile,butstanceisaggressive.Semiconthisyearexpandedafurther10-15%to100,000attendees,andtheshowdemonstratedco

3、ntinuedstrongeffortstobuilduptheindustrytomoveupthevaluechain,narrowtheICimportdeficit,addressnewgrowthmarkets,andensureself-sufficiencyofsupply.TheICfundsandmemorysupplierskeptalowprofilebutmaintainedsameconcertedefforttobuilduptheirindustry.■Investingthroughcyclicalslowdown.K

4、eytakeaways:(1)Localindustrybottomingwithlocalpeersbutfacingamutedyear.(2)MemoryprogressslowingpostMicron-Jinhuacase.(3)Foundryinvestmentsmovingahead—HuaHong/Hualion212”fabs,SMICon14nmR&D,(4)ICdesign—surgeinnewIPOlistingstargetingnextindustrygrowthdrivers.(5)Packaging:SiP(syste

5、m-in-package)andfan-outarethetrendsbutareattractingcompetition.(6)Compoundsemi—emergingasafocusareaforbetterlocalsupply.(7)Equipment—afewsuppliersemerging(Naura,AMEC,ACM).(8)Materials—severalwafersupplierswithaggressiveplansbutnoeffectivecapacityyet.■Foundry:TSMCtoppick,HuaHong

6、overSMIConbetterreturnsonlegacyfoundry.WeviewTSMCwithinfoundryasbestplacedtobenefitfromChina’sdevelopmentonadvancedcapacity,andpreferHuaHongtoSMICduetolesscapitalintensityandtechnologyriskandbettercashflowsonmaturenodes.Butvaluationisnowhigherandthecompanywilltakesometimetobuil

7、dscaleandincrementalprofitabilitywithits12”fab.■Back-end:InitiatewithOUTPERFORMonUSI.WeinitiateonUSIwithOUTPERFORMandTPofRmb18.20asweexpectittobenefitfrommoreSiPcontentatAppleandfastergrowthinthenon-Applebusinessinauto/industrial.WearemoreconservativeonTongfuandJCETwherecompeti

8、tionandtheslowsemiconductorenvironmentdragprofitabilit