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1、G10INTERESTRATESEURinflation:SwingincarrysupportsBEIflattenersFig.1:EURinflationbreakevencurvesinswapvscashRetreatininflationdata-isEasteralonetoblame?Eurozoneheadlineandcoreinflationcameinat1.41%and0.78%y/y,respectivelyinMarch,downfrom1.5%and1.0%inFebruary.WhiletheEaster
2、effectwaslikelytoblameforasignificantamountoftheslowdown,theremayalsohavebeensomeunderlyingmoderation,withpartofthesoftnessinsomememberstatesseeminglydrivenbycomponentstypicallynotsensitivetothetimingofEaster.Whiletheformershouldreversesoon,thelatterdevelopmentisalarminggi
3、venalreadystubbornlylowcoreinflation.Inflationuncertaintytopersistuntilthesummer…TheEastereffectislikelytocontinuetodistorttheinflationdataoverthecomingmonths,withoureconomistsexpectingcoreinflationtoreverttowardsitsunderlyingtrendonlyinthesummer.Meanwhile,despitetheECBapp
4、earingtohavemovedtoaneasingbiasamidtheongoinggrowthslowdown,itmightstillbelimitedoneasingoptionsandlesswillingtoactbeforethenextpresidenttakesofficeand€ster.…addingtomarket’sinflationanxietyandlikelypressuringinflationbreakevenstoflatten:ECBPresidentDraghihasattributedther
5、ecentfallinmarket-basedmeasuresofinflationtoadropininflationriskpremium.Inourview,itismorelikelythatthewideninggapbetweenthemarket-andsurvey-basedmeasuresoffutureinflationisdownduetoinertiainsurveyforecasts.15(bp)BUNDei-26/-30BEIcurve5y5y/15y15yinflationswapcurve(RHS)1050-
6、5(bp)6560555045Indeed,theresultsofECB’sQ12019SurveyofProfessionalForecastersshowedaverageHICPinflationexpectationsof1.5%,1.6%,1.7%and1.8%for2019,2020,2021andforthelongerterm(2023),respectively–adownwardrevisionof0.2pp,0.1ppand0.1ppfor2019,2020andthelongerterm,respectivel
7、y,versusthepreviousedition(Fig.2).Wecontinuetobelievethatifthemarket’sperceptionoftheECB’sinabilitytoreachinflationtargetgainsfurthertraction,thelonger-endinflationbreakevenforwardsarelikelytorepricelower,especiallyifitJan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Sources:BNPP
8、aribas.Forecastsareprovisionalandsubjecttochange.weretoremainabovethecentralbanktarget.P
