基于模糊随机理论的光伏出力预测

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1、ഭ޵മҖ࠶㊫ਧ˖TK519ᆖṑԓ⸱˖10079ഭ䱵മҖ࠶㊫ਧ˖621.3ᇶ㓗˖ޜᔰ⺅༛ᆖս䇪᮷ะӄ⁗㌀䳅ᵰ⨼䇰ⲺՅ࠰࣑人⎁⺋༡⹊ガ⭕˖䉒ᆷ⩚ሲᐾ˖䎥Җᕪᮉᦸ⭩䈭ᆜփ˖ᐕᆖ⺅༛ᆜ〇˖⭥≄ᐕ〻щѐ˖⭥࣋㌫㔏৺ަ㠚ࣘॆᡶ൞ᆜ䲘˖⭥≄о⭥ᆀᐕ〻ᆖ䲒ㆊ䗟ᰛᵕ˖2015ᒤ3ᴸᦾҾᆜփঋփ˖ॾे⭥࣋བྷᆖClassifiedIndex:TK519U.D.C:621.3ThesisfortheMasterDegreeResearchonthePredictionofPVOutputBasedontheFuzzy-Random

2、TheoryCandidateφXieYuqiSupervisorφProf.ZhaoShuqiangSchoolofElectricalandElectronicSchoolφEngineeringDateofDefenceφMarch,2015Degree-Conferring-InstitutionφNorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity᪎㾷㜭ⓀᱟӪ㊫ਁኅ䗷〻ѝᴰ䟽㾱Ⲵഐ㍐ˈᱟਁኅⲴѫ㾱䍴ⓀDŽ䲿⵰ॆ⸣⟳ᯉⲴнᯝ⎸㙇ԕ৺ᰕ⳺⊑ḃⲴ⧟ຳˈᯠ㜭ⓀሩҾᖃӺц⭼Ⲵ䟽㾱ᙗ↓൘ᗇࡠӪԜⲴ

3、Პ䙽䇔਼DŽཚ䱣㜭ᱟᯠ㜭ⓀѝⲴѫ࣋ߋˈԿਁ⭥֌Ѫ䟽㾱Ⲵ࡙⭘ᯩᔿˈ䲿⵰ᆳབྷ㿴⁑൘⭥࣋㌫㔏ѝⲴᓄ⭘ˈ⭡Ҿަࠪ࣋դ䲿⧟ຳⲴᖡ૽ާᴹᖸབྷⲴн⺞ᇊᙗˈՊ㔉⭥࣋㌫㔏䈳ᓖǃ⭥㖁㿴ࡂᑖᶕнׯˈഐ↔亴⍻Կࠪ࣋Ⲵ⹄ウާᴹᇎ䱵кⲴ᜿ѹDŽ⵰૽ᖡ᧕ⴤॆਈⲴӁ㘼DŽ㍐ഐⲴ㾱ѫᴰ࣋ࠪԿ૽ᖡᱟᓖᕪ➗➗ᕪᓖˈഐ↔ᵜ᮷ᔪ・ҶสҾӁ䚞㌫ᮠ⌅Ⲵ➗ᕪᓖ亴⍻⁑රDŽԕᰐӁᶑԦлⲴ➗ᕪᓖ䇑㇇⁑රѪส⹰ˈ⭘Ӂ䚞㌫ᮠሩѻ䘋㹼؞↓֌ѪᴹӁᶑԦлⲴ➗ᕪᓖ٬DŽ亴ᣕӁ䟿ާᴹⲴ䲿ᵪᙗˈ㘼ᢺаᇊӁ䟿лⲴӁ䚞㌫ᮠ֌Ѫ⁑㋺ᮠ༴⨶ˈ㘳㲁䘉єњн⺞ᇊഐ㍐ˈสҾ⴨ޣ⨶䇪⸕䇶ˈᔪ・Ҷส

4、Ҿ⁑㋺䲿ᵪ⨶䇪Ⲵ➗ᕪᓖ亴⍻⁑රˈᒦਟᗇࡠཊṧॆⲴ亴⍻㔃᷌DŽަ⅑Կ⭥⊐⑙ᓖሩԿࠪ࣋ҏާᴹ䖳བྷⲴᖡ૽DŽ㔬ਸ㘳㲁Ҷሩ⭥⊐⑙ᓖᖡ૽⴨ޣᙗབྷሿˈ䘹ਆ➗ᕪᓖ઼⧟ຳ⑙ᓖєњഐ㍐ᒦᔪ・Ҷ⁑රˈᇎ⧠Ҷሩ⑙ᓖⲴ亴⍻DŽ᮷ㄐᴰਾ⭡亴⍻ᗇࡠⲴ➗ᕪᓖ઼Կ⭥⊐⑙ᓖˈ䙊䗷Կࠪ࣋䇑㇇⁑ර䇑㇇ᴰ㓸㔃᷌DŽީ䭤䈃φ˗ᮠ㌫䚞Ӂ˗䇪⨶ᵪ䲿㋺⁑˗ᓖᕪ➗˗⭥ਁԿԿ⭥⊐⑙ᓖIAbstractEnergyisthemostsignificantfactorinhumangrowthsinceitisthemainresourcefordevelopment.

5、Withtheconsumptionoffossilfuelsandincreasinglypollutedenvironment,itiswidelyrecognizedthatnewenergyisanareaofincreasingimportancetoourworld.Solarenergyisthemainforceinthenewenergy.Photovoltaicgenerationasanimportantway,moreandmorewillbeappliedinthepowersys

6、tem.Becauseoftheenvironmentalfactors,itsoutputhasagreatuncertaintyanditwillbringsomeproblemstothepowergridschedulingandplanning.ThestudyofpredictionofPVoutputhasactuallymeaning.LightintensityisthemostimportantfactorofaffectingthePVoutput.Thechangeofcloudsl

7、eadsthechangeoflightintensity.Thispaperpresentsapredictionmodeloflightintensitybasedonthecloudcoverindex.Basedonthemodelundertheconditionofcloudlessweather,wecancorrectthevalueoflightintensitywithcloudcoverindex.Thepredictionofcloudcoverisrandom,meanwhile,

8、weregardthecloudcoverindexasfuzzynumbers.Wecanusetheuncertaintytheorytoanalysisbothofthemandestablishalightintensitypredictionmodelbasedonthefuzzy-randomtheoryˈitcangivethediversityofpredictionresults.Secondl