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1、硕士学位论文基于引力模型的自由贸易协定对智利贸易的影响研究ANALYSISONTHEEFFECTSOFCHILE’SFREETRADEAGREEMENTSONTRADEUSINGGRAVITYTRADEEQUATIONPabloRaúlDroguettFrésard哈尔滨工业大学2018年6月国内图书分类号：F7学校代码：10213国际图书分类号：339密级：公开经济学硕士学位论文基于引力模型的自由贸易协定对智利贸易的影响研究硕士研究生：帕罗导师：马涛教授申请学位：经济学硕士学科：应用经济学所在单位：管理学院答辩日期：2018年6月授予学位单
2、位：哈尔滨工业大学ClassifiedIndex:F7U.D.C:339DissertationfortheMaster’sDegreeinEngineeringANALYSISONTHEEFFECTSOFCHILE’SFREETRADEAGREEMENTSONTRADEUSINGGRAVITYTRADEEQUATIONCandidate：PabloRaúlDroguettFrésardSupervisor：Prof.MaTaoAcademicDegreeAppliedfor：MasterSpeciality：AppliedEconomics
3、Affiliation：SchoolofEconomyandManagementDateofDefence：June,2018Degree-Conferring-Institution：HarbinInstituteofTechnologyDissertationforMasterDegreeinManagement,HITAbstractThisthesisappliesgravitytrademodeltoanalyzetheeffectthatfreetradeagreementshashadonthebilateraltradeflo
4、wsbetweenChileandits45partnercountrieswhichithasanactingfreetradeagreementtothisday,foraperiodof16years.ThedataisusedfromdatabasesoftheInternationalMonetaryFund,InternationalTradeCenterandtheWorldBank.Theresultsshownthat,forthiscase,freetradeagreementhasanegativeimpactonbil
5、ateraltrade,contrarytotheresearchedliteraturebyasmallamount(0.17%),thismaybetoreasonsbeyondthescopeofthisstudysuchasthesub-primecrisisorothernon-quantifiablebarriersthathindertradebetweenChileandthepartnercountries.Ontheotherhand,GDPandpopulationhasapositiveeffectontrade,wh
6、ilegeographicaldistancehasanegativeeffectontrade,asexpectedfrompreviousresearch.Exchangeratehasasmallbutsignificantpositiveeffect,thisisinlinewithwhattheavailableliteraturehasresearchedaboutthetopic.Theanalysisoftradepotential,andbyapplyingspeedofconvergence,itisestimatedth
7、atChilestillhastradepotentialwithdevelopedareasandcountries,suchasEurope,Canada,andsomedevelopingcountriesofAsia.Thisanalysisshowsthatthefullpotentialoffreetradeagreementshavenotbeenachievedyetandneedsimprovement.Keyword:InternationalTrade,FreeTradeAgreement,GravityTradeEqu
8、ation,TradePotential.-I-DissertationforMasterDegreeinManagement,HIT摘要在过去的25年中，智利的商
