国际石油价格对俄罗斯的经济影响.pdf

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1、ƪ°ÁDǻIJ/©}li>YzpJ)THEIMPACTOFINTERNATIONALOILPRICESONTHERUSSIANECONOMYKHVESKOYAUHENI
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2、TOFINTERNATIONALOILPRICESONTHERUSSIANECONOMYCandidateKhveskoYauheniSupervisorProf.LiMengAcademicDegreeAppliedforMasterofEconomicsSpecialityFinanceAffiliationSchoolofManagementDateofDefenseJune,2018Degree-Conferring-InstitutionHarbinInstituteofTechnologyÕƃܸÁLjŻÁƪ°ÁDǻIJAbstractTheoilisthe

3、oneofthemostimportantnaturalresourcesinthemoderneconomyandalsoitisbecomingmoreandmorerelevantfordevelopingcountries,whichalreadyaccountformorethanahalfofworld’stotaloilconsumption.ThegoalofthisstudyistoinvestigatetherelationshipsbetweenoilpriceandGDP,inflation,balanceofpayment,andtradebalancet

4、hroughanempiricalanalysisusingregressionmodels.Forourmodelswechoseperiodfrom1998till2016year.AlldataforresearchwasdownloadedfromIMFandRussianFederalStateStatisticsService.Forstatisticanalyzing,IusedprogramEViews10SV.ForRussianFederation,asforoneofmostexportingoilcountries,oil–isoneofthemostimp

5、ortantsourcesofforeignearnings.Theshareofexportsofoilandoilproductsinthetotalforeignexchangeearningsofthecountryisabout15%.TheroleoftheRussianoilcomplexasasourceofbudgetrevenuesisconstantlygrowing.ThispaperinvestigatestheimpactofoilpricesonRussianeconomy,boththeoreticallyandempirically.Theoret

6、icalanalysis,whichmainlydiscussestherelationshipsbetweenRussianGDPandothermacroeconomicindicatorsandinternationaloilPrices.Relationshipsbetweenmacroeconomicindicatorsforoilexporterscountriesalsoweredescribedinworksofworld’sfamousscientists,suchasHamilton,FabioGoriandLiXiaotongect.Empiricalresu

7、ltsofourmodelsshowthatoilpriceandRussianGDP,inflation,balanceofpayment,andforeigntradebalancehasdeeprelationships(thecoefficientofRandR-Adjustedinourmodelisanabout99%).GrangercausalitytestshowthatoilpricesGrangercausesRussia’srealGDP,In