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ID:34965632
大小:6.52 MB
页数:81页
时间:2019-03-15
《船舶油耗模型研究》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、上海交通大学硕士学位论文船舶油耗模型研究201511DissertationSubmittedtoShanghaiJiaoTongUniversityfortheDegreeofMasterStudyonVesselFuelConsumptionModelCandidateRuiYeStudentID:SupervisorProf.JinsongXuAcademicDegreeAppliedforMasterofEngineeringNavalArchitectureandOceanSpecialtyEngineeringSchoolofNavalArchitecture,O
2、ceanAffiliationandCivilEngineeringDateofDefenseNovember,2015Degree-Conferring-InstitutionShanghaiJiaoTongUniversity船舶油耗模型研究摘要国际海事组织IMO拟通过船舶能效管理计划SEEMP建立适用于所有营运船舶的强制性能效标准,逐步控制和减少海上的CO2排放总量。而燃油开支在船舶运行成本中所占比例最大,该计划在降低排放的同时,必然会减少能耗并带来可观的燃油开支节约。上述经济、环境及法律法规因素共同决定了船舶必须以更低的油耗、更少的排放投入未来的实际运营。这在技术和管
3、理两方面都对船舶和船队提出了更高的要求。船舶能效管理计划SEEMP的实施必须透彻理解与船舶油耗相关的各种影响因素,并据此建立船舶油耗的预测模型。本文正是基于上述背景,寻求建立油耗模型的通用方法,量化各种环境及操作因素对于油耗和航速的影响程度,为航行优化提供决策基础,对于提高船舶能效运行指数EEOI具有决定意义。本文将丹麦籍客滚轮MSSmyril号作为研究案例,对船舶实测运行数据进行了分析和预处理,并使用人工神经网络构建了船舶油耗和航速的黑箱模型。基于实测数据与模型预测数据的对比,验证了上述油耗模型的准确性和实用性,对于后续研究和应用具有重要借鉴价值。关键词:船舶能效管理计划S
4、EEMP,油耗模型,黑箱模型,人工神经网络STUDYONVESSELFUELCONSUMPTIONMODELABSTRACTTheInternationalMaritimeOrganizationisplanningtoestablishamandatorystandardapplyingtoalloperatingshipswithShipEnergyEfficiencyManagementPlan(SEEMP)inordertograduallycontrolandreduceCO2emissionfromshippingindustry.Consideringthatf
5、uelexpenseoccupiesthelargestportionamongallshipoperatingcosts,thisplanwillalsoreduceenergyconsumptionandbringsconsiderablesavingsinfuelexpenseinthemeantime.Theseeconomic,environmentalandlegalfactorscodeterminethatallshipsshouldbeinoperationwithlessfuelconsumptionandemissioninthenearfuture,t
6、husleadingtohigherdemandstoshipsandcrewsintechnologicalandmanaginglevel.TheimplementationofSEEMPrequiresathoroughunderstandingofallfuelconsumptionrelatedfactorsandamodeltopredictfuelconsumptionbasedonsuchunderstanding.Againstthisbackdrop,thisdissertationisaimedatfindingacommonapproachtoesta
7、blishingapredictingmodeltoquantifytheimpactofenvironmentalandoperationalfactorstowardsshipspeedandfuelconsumption.SuchmodelprovidesadecisionbasisforvoyageplanningandplaysasignificantroleinimprovingEnergyEfficiencyOperationalIndicator(EEOI)ofallships.Inth
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