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1、SoilDynamicsandEarthquakeEngineering19(2000)91±114www.elsevier.com/locate/soildynReliabilityanalysisofthree-dimensionaldynamicslopestabilityandearthquake-inducedpermanentdisplacementA.S.Al-Homouda,*,W.W.TahtamonibaSchoolofEngineering,AmericanUniversityofSharjah,P.O.Box26666,Sharjah,UnitedA
2、rabEmiratesbCivilEngineeringDepartment,JordanUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Irbid,JordanReceived18March1999;receivedinrevisedform5October1999;accepted13November1999AbstractDifferentmodelsweredevelopedforevaluatingtheprobabilisticthree-dimensional(3D)stabilityanalysisofearthslopesandemban
3、k-mentsunderearthquakeloadingusingboththesafetyfactorandthedisplacementcriteriaofslopefailure.Inthe3Danalysis,thecriticalandtotalslopewidthsbecometwonewandimportantparameters.Theprobabilisticmodelsevaluatetheprobabilityoffailureunderseismicloadingconsideringthedifferentsourcesofuncertainti
4、esinvolvedintheproblem,i.e.uncertaintiesstemmingfromthediscrepanciesbetweenlaboratory-measuredandin-situvaluesofshearstrengthparameters,randomnessofearthquakeoccurrence,andearthquake-inducedacceleration.Themodelsalsotakesintoconsiderationthespatialvariabilitiesandcorrelationsofsoilproperti
5、es.Fiveprobabilisticmodelsofearthquake-induceddisplacementweredevelopedbasedonthenon-exceedanceofalimitedvaluecriterion.Moreover,aprobabilisticmodelfordynamicslopestabilityanalysiswasdevelopedbasedon3Ddynamicsafetyfactor.Thesemodelsareformulatedandincorporatedwithinacomputerprogram(PTDDSSA
6、).Asensitivityanalysiswasconductedonthedifferentparametersinvolvedinthedevelopedmodelsbyapplyingthosemodelstoawell-knownlandslides(Selsetlandslide)underdifferentlevelsofseismichazard.Theparametricstudywasconductedtoevaluatetheeffectofdifferentinputparametersontheresultingcriticalfailurewid
7、th,3Ddynamicsafetyfactor,earthquake-induceddisplacementandtheprobabilityoffailure.Inputparametersinclude:averagevaluesandcoef®cientsofvariationsofwatertable,cohesionandangleoffrictionforeffectivestressanalysis,scalesof¯uctuationsinbothdistanceandtime,hypocentr
