Allen， Clay W. - Technical Analysis for Long-term Investors.pdf

《Allen， Clay W. - Technical Analysis for Long-term Investors.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、TechnicalAnalysisforLong-termInvestorsLong-terminvestorsoftenshuntechnicalanalysisbecauseitisthoughttobeatoolusedsolelyforshort-termspeculation.Infact,alargepartoftheliteratureoftechnicalanalysisisdevotedtoshort-termtiming,whichconfirmsthisbelief.Manyindiv

2、idualinvestorshaveexperimentedwithvariouschartingtechniquesandhavedroppedthetechnicalapproachafterafew“bad”experiences.Professionallong-terminvestorsareoftencompletelyindoctrinatedinthebeliefthatthemarketis“efficient”andthattechnicalanalysisisofnopractical

3、valuesincetheday-to-dayfluctuationsofstockpricesarerandom.Therecanbelittleargumentthattheday-to-daymovementsofstockpricesarerandom.Andyet,themovementsofindividualstocksandthebroadmarketdemonstrateanuncannyabilitytoanticipatefuturefundamentaldevelopmentsand

4、otherfactorsthatinfluencestockprices.Short-termrandomnessofstockpricesdoesnotseemtodiminishtheabilityofthemarkettomore-or-lessconsistentlyactasalong-termdiscountingmechanism.Therandomnatureofstockpricemovementshasledtothedevelopmentofaprimarilyacademictheo

5、rycalledtheEfficientMarketHypothesis.TheEMHishighlycriticalofprofessionalinvestmentmanagementandisoftenusedtojustifyapassiveindexedapproachtoportfoliomanagement.Mostoftheassumptionsthatmakeupthefoundationsoftheefficientmarkethypothesisseemunrealistictome–e

6、speciallytheideasthatnewinformationisdisseminatedthroughoutthemarketinstantlyandthatallinvestorsinterpretnewinformationaccuratelyandthatstocksarealwayspricedcorrectly.Ihaveobservedinstancesthatarealmostexactlyoppositetothispropositionsofrequentlyastorepres

7、entacommonoccurrence.Andstill,theconclusionsoftheefficientmarkethypothesisseemtobeborneoutbythealmostuniversalinabilityofthemajorityofinstitutionalinvestorsto“beat”themarketasmeasuredbyapopularmarketaveragesuchastheS&P500.Theacademiccommunitysmuglypointsto

8、thelackofperformanceasanalmostdirectproofoftheefficientmarkethypothesis.That“proof”isalmosttotallydamagingtothepracticeoftechnicalanalysisbylong-termfundamentalinvestors.TheinabilityW.ClayAllenCFAPage12/25/01