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1、山西师范大学学位论文总体表明太原能值结构相对合理,能值自给能力较强。(2)将太原城市复合生态经济系统能值与其他地区进行横向比较,能值自给率、能值货币比率远高于其它国家和地区,体现出城市对本地资源开发利用率较高且对外依赖度小;电力能值比和人均能值使用量远低于我国平均水平和发达地区,说明人均生活水平和质量还有待提高,同时经济的快速发展,导致环境负载率持续升高从而对城市的可持续发展构成阻碍。(3)通过对2004—2013年能值指标分析测算,得出总能值、不可更新资源能值逐年增长,输入能值和可更新能值变化平稳,表明太原市经济增长主要依靠本地资源
2、,系统可持续发展指数ESI逐年下降,2004年为弱度可持续性、2005—2009为弱度不可持续性、2010—2013为不可持续性,数据表明系统运行向恶性方向发展。(4)运用灰色预测模型对2014—2018太原市可持续发展指数预测表明:太原可持续发展指数逐年下降,有向极度不可持续发展的趋势,因此应采取合理和科学化的措施积极遏制这种态势。【关键词】城市复合生态经济系统能值理论能值指标体系能值可持续性发展指标灰度预测太原市【论文类型】基础研究II山西师范大学学位论文ofgovernmentdecisioninlongstrategy.Tai
3、yuanisoneoftheearliestindustrialbaseinChina.However,itseconomydevelopedrelativelyslowsincetheendofthetwentiethcentury.Thenitappearsaseriesofproblemsofurbanizationinbothecologyandenvironment.TheevaluationofsustainabledevelopmentofcomplexecosystemofTaiyuanisneededhere,top
4、rovidethebasisoftheoryofadjustingecologicalenvironmentanddevelopinginbothsocietyandeconomy,whichcanprovidereferencetomeasuringsimilarecologicalsystem.Inthispaper,theauthorusesemergyanalysistogetquantitativedataoncomplexecosystemofTaiyuan.Tomakesureitisfittothefact,theem
5、ergysustainabilityindexwasimprovedduringtheprocessofanalysis.Combiningstaticanddynamicanalysis,theauthormeasurestheuseofcomplexecosysteminTaiyuanfrom2004to2013.Thegreypredictionmodelisusedofpredictthesustainabledevelopmentindexfrom2014to2018.Themainfindingsarehereasfoll
6、ows.1)CalculatingtheurbancomplexecosystememergyofTaiyuancityin2013,establishedtheflowofindexsystemofemergyindicators,obtainsthetotalusageofsystememergyis1.17×1023sej,renewableresourceemergyis1.24×1021sej,accountedforonly1.05%,nonrenewableresourcesis1.03×1023sej,II英文摘要wh
7、ichconstitutethelargesttotalpercent88%,theflowofmoneyemergyis2.15×1024sej,whichtheimportsofemergyis1.27×1022sej,theexportofemergyis4.59×1022sej,theemergyofGDPis2.09×1024sej,accountingforcashflowemergy97.2%.Taiy-uanemergystructureisreasonableandtheself-sufficiencyability
8、emergyisstrong.2)ComparingwithotherareasaccordingtotheemergyindexsystemofTaiyuan,therateofself-sufficiencyemer