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1、MITJointProgramontheScienceandPolicyofGlobalChangeComputableGeneralEquilibriumModelsandTheirUseinEconomy-WidePolicyAnalysisIanSueWingTechnicalNoteNo.6September2004TheMITJointProgramontheScienceandPolicyofGlobalChangeisanorganizationforresearch,independentpolicyanalysis,a
2、ndpubliceducationinglobalenvironmentalchange.Itseekstoprovideleadershipinunderstandingscientific,economic,andecologicalaspectsofthisdifficultissue,andcombiningthemintopolicyassessmentsthatservetheneedsofongoingnationalandinternationaldiscussions.Tothisend,theProgrambring
3、stogetheraninterdisciplinarygroupfromtwoestablishedresearchcentersatMIT:theCenterforGlobalChangeScience(CGCS)andtheCenterforEnergyandEnvironmentalPolicyResearch(CEEPR).Thesetwocentersbridgemanykeyareasoftheneededintellectualwork,andadditionalessentialareasarecoveredbyoth
4、erMITdepartments,bycollaborationwiththeEcosystemsCenteroftheMarineBiologyLaboratory(MBL)atWoodsHole,andbyshort-andlong-termvisitorstotheProgram.ThePrograminvolvessponsorshipandactiveparticipationbyindustry,government,andnon-profitorganizations.Toinformprocessesofpolicyde
5、velopmentandimplementation,climatechangeresearchneedstofocusonimprovingthepredictionofthosevariablesthataremostrelevanttoeconomic,social,andenvironmentaleffects.Inturn,thegreenhousegasandatmosphericaerosolassumptionsunderlyingclimateanalysisneedtoberelatedtotheeconomic,t
6、echnological,andpoliticalforcesthatdriveemissions,andtotheresultsofinternationalagreementsandmitigation.Further,assessmentsofpossiblesocietalandecosystemimpacts,andanalysisofmitigationstrategies,needtobebasedonrealisticevaluationoftheuncertaintiesofclimatescience.TheProg
7、ram'sTechnicalNotesseriesisintendedtodocumenttechnicalresearchdetailsforourownuse,andalsoforotherresearcherswhomaywishtorecreateorupdatethework.FurtherinformationisavailablebyrequesttotheProgramOfficeatthenumberslistedbelow.HenryD.JacobyandRonaldG.Prinn,ProgramCo-Directo
8、rsFormoreinformation,pleasecontacttheJointProgramOfficePostalAddress:JointProgramontheScienceandPolicyo