基于ca-markov模型的百色市石江河谷土地资源利用景观格局动态模拟与预测

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1、▾ắᦻnuturalfactorssuchastheslope,distancefromtheadministrativecenterandtransportrouteshaveagreatimpactonthechangeoflandscapepattern;andtheplanningfactors,delimitationoflandforControlAreaoftheConstructionLandandlandusezomeforthecapitalfarmlandprotection,willlimitthedevelopmentoftheconstruct

2、ionlandandStrengtheningthecultivatedlandprotection.Inthispaperthequalitativeandquantitativeanalysisofthesefactorsarecarriedon,whichwillprovidetheconversionrulesforthesimulationofthefuturelandscapepatternofbaiseyoujiangrivervalley.(4)UsingtheCA-Markovmodeltosimulatethelandscapepatternofthestudyare

3、ain2010andcomparingthasimulationresultswiththeactuallandscapepatternchart,theAccuracytestofnumberandspacesimulationareupto85%,whichindicatesthatthemodelisfineandconfident.aftertheAccuracytest,thelandscapepatternin2020issimulated.Theresultsshowsthatintheperiodfrom2010to2020,thechangeofthelandscape

4、patterninbaiseyoujiangrivervalleyisobvious:theareaofwoollandandgrasslandisdecreases,andthecultivatedland,constructionland,waterandunusedlandlandscapeincrease;thelandscapefragmentationgoesinadeeperlenel，andthenumberofpatchesincreases,andthelandscapediversityhasanupwardtrend,whichmeansthattheimpact

5、ofhumanactivityonthelandscapepatternofbaiseyoujiangrivervalleyareacontinuestodeepen.Keywords:landuse;landscapepattern;CA-Markovmodel;dynamicsimulationandpredictionoflandscape;BaiseYoujiangrivervalleyIV▾ắᦻ..................................................................................

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