Roland_Berger_Investment_Banking_20120710.pdf

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1、CompetenceCenterFinancialServices1MarkusBöhme,KiarashFatehi,PierreReboulInvestmentBankingOutlookSummer2012–Ataturningpoint?CompetenceCenterFinancialServicesOurthesesinanutshell>Globalinvestmentbankingrevenuescontinuetheirrollercoasterride.Afterasoftsecondhalfof20

2、11,theystronglyreboundedinthefirstquarterof2012.WeprojectaweakerQ2withfullyearrevenuesintheEUR200-260bnrange,dependingonhowthesovereigndebtcrisisinEuropeunfolds.>Performancestronglydifferedbothwithinandamongpeergroups:Globaluniversalplayerswithahigherfocusonthefi

3、xedincomebusinessonaverageoutperformedinvestmentbankswithalowerfocusonfixedincome.Manymidsizedandsmallerplayersindevelopedmarketscameunderpressure.Atthesametimemanypeersinemergingmarketsroaredfullsteamahead.>Eventhoughthesetrendsreflectstructuralchangessuchasreve

4、nueshiftingtoemergingmarketsandnewregulationssuchasBasel2.5/3,theyarealsoharbingersofthesqueezethatinvestmentbanksaregoingtoface.Unlessbanksmakemajorchangestotheirbusinessmodels,theirReturnonEquityislikelytoremaininsingledigitsandmanypeersunderperformingtodaymays

5、eetheireconomicmodelevenmorechallengedoverthenext3to5years.>Fixingindividualandindustryeconomicswillnotcomeeasy.Evenwithroundsofproductivitymeasures,structuralovercapacitystilllargelyexists.Webelievethataround75,000jobsandonethirdofindustryrisktakingcapabilityare

6、stillontheline.Valuechains,therefore,willundergotransformationandtrueexits–whichwehavehardlyseensofar–willbeinevitableoverthenext3to5years.>Wethinkthatnowisthetimeforbankstostepdecisivelyuptothischallengetoreapearlymoverbenefitsbyabespokemixofswiftlyimplementings

7、ustainablemodels,capturinggrowthopportunitiesmainlyinemergingmarkets,andinsomecasespositionthemselvesasasolutionproviderforthoseplayerswhoneedtoconsequentlyrefocustheirvaluechainstosurvive.CompetenceCenterFinancialServices3LookingBackAugust2007markedawatershedeve

8、ntinglobalinvestmentbanking1).Liquiditybegandry-ingupinassetbackedsecuritiesmarketsandeventseventuallyunfoldedintothesubprimecrisisthatclaimedbanksthroughoutth