Mckinsey - Strategy In Uncertainty .pdf

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1、25814-P.R.(081-090)Uncertainty8/8/008:56AMPage81StrategyunderuncertaintyHughG.Courtney,JaneKirkland,andS.PatrickViguerieThetraditionalapproachtostrategyrequiresprecisepredictionsandthusoftenleadsexecutivestounderestimateuncertainty.Thiscanbedownrightdangerous.Afour-levelframeworkcanh

2、elp.ttheheartofthetraditionalapproachtostrategyliestheAassumptionthatexecutives,byapplyingasetofpowerfulanalytictools,canpredictthefutureofanybusinessaccuratelyenoughtochooseaclearstrategicdirectionforit.Theprocessofteninvolvesunderesti-matinguncertaintyinordertolayoutavisionoffuture

3、eventssuffi-cientlyprecisetobecapturedinadiscounted-cash-flow(DCF)analysis.Whenthefutureistrulyuncertain,thisapproachisatbestmarginallyhelpfulandatworstdownrightdangerous:underestimatinguncertaintycanleadtostrategiesthatneitherdefendacompanyagainstthethreatsnortakeadvantageoftheopport

4、unitiesthathigherlevelsofuncertaintyprovide.Anotherdangerliesattheotherextreme:ifmanagerscan’tfindastrategythatworksundertraditionalanalysis,theymayabandontheanalyticalrigoroftheirplanningprocessaltogetherandbasetheirdecisionsongutinstinct.HughCourtneyisaconsultantinMcKinsey’sWashingt

5、on,DC,office;JaneKirklandisanalumnusoftheNewYorkoffice;andPatrickViguerieisaprincipalintheAtlantaoffice.ThisarticleisadaptedfromonethatappearedinHarvardBusinessReview,November–December1997.Copyright©1997PresidentandFellowsofHarvardCollege.Reprintedbypermission.Allrightsreserved.81258

6、14-P.R.(081-090)Uncertainty8/8/008:56AMPage8282THECHANGINGLANDSCAPEMakingsystematicallysoundstrategicdecisionsunderuncertaintyrequiresanapproachthatavoidsthisdangerousbinaryview.Rarelydomanagersknowabsolutelynothingofstrategicimportance,eveninthemostuncertainenvironments.Whatfollowsi

7、saframeworkfordeterminingthelevelofuncertaintysurroundingstrategicdecisionsandfortailoringstrategytothatuncertainty.FourlevelsofuncertaintyAvailablestrategicallyrelevantinformationtendstofallintotwocategories.First,itisoftenpossibletoidentifycleartrends,suchasmarketdemographics,thatc

8、anhelpdefinep