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1、GlobalandNationalMacroeconometricModellingThispageintentionallyleftblankGlobalandNationalMacroeconometricModelling:ALong-RunStructuralApproachAnthonyGarrattDepartmentofEconomics,BirkbeckCollege,LondonKevinLeeDepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofLeicesterM.Ha
2、shemPesaranFacultyofEconomicsandTrinityCollege,CambridgeYongcheolShinLeedsUniversityBusinessSchool13GreatClarendonStreet,OxfordOX26DPOxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford.ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholar
3、ship,andeducationbypublishingworldwideinOxfordNewYorkAucklandCapeTownDaresSalaamHongKongKarachiKualaLumpurMadridMelbourneMexicoCityNairobiNewDelhiShanghaiTaipeiTorontoWithofficesinArgentinaAustriaBrazilChileCzechRepublicFranceGreeceGuatemalaHungaryItalyJap
4、anPolandPortugalSingaporeSouthKoreaSwitzerlandThailandTurkeyUkraineVietnamOxfordisaregisteredtrademarkofOxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountriesPublishedintheUnitedStatesbyOxfordUniversityPressInc.,NewYork©AnthonyGarratt,KevinLee,M.HashemPes
5、aran,andYongcheolShin,2006ThemoralrightsoftheauthorshavebeenassertedDatabaserightOxfordUniversityPress(maker)Firstpublished2006Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe
6、priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermittedbylaw,orundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographicsrightsorganization.EnquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeoftheaboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress
7、,attheaddressaboveYoumustnotcirculatethisbookinanyotherbindingorcoverandyoumustimposethesameconditiononanyacquirerBritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationDataDataavailableLibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationDataDataavailableTypesetbyNewgenImagingSystems
8、(P)Ltd.,Chennai,IndiaPrintedinGreatBritainonacid-freepaperbyBiddlesLtd,King’sLynn,NorfolkISBN0–19–929685–5978–0–19–929685–910987654321PrefaceNationalandglobalmacroeconometricmodellinghashadalongandven-erablehistoryi
