BNEF_AR_India_Investment_Growth_2012_01_311.pdf

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1、31January2012INDIA–ANALYSTREACTIONContentsIndiabecomesfastestgrowingcountry1.STRONGGROWTHINforcleanenergyinvestments2011BUTTHISMAYNOTLAST2Indiasawanunprecedented52%growthincleanenergyinvestmentsin2011,2.CAPACITYreachingarecord$10.3bn.Thewindsectorstillleads,butsolarinvestmentsawADDITI

2、ONSCLOSETOPROJECTIONS4aseven-foldincrease.Wepresentthehighlights,reviewourforecastsand3.GOVERNMENTdetailthegovernment'snextfiveyearplan.RAISESITSAMBITION5●CleanenergyinvestmentsinIndiareached$10.3bnin2011,52%higherthanthe$6.8bnin2010.Thiswasthehighestgrowthfigureofanycountryalbeitfrom

3、amodestbase;Indiaaccountedforjust4%ofglobalinvestments.●Thelargegrowthwasdrivenbyaseven-foldincreaseinfundingforgrid-connectedsolarprojects:from$0.6bnin2010to$4.2bnin2011.Solaralmostreachedthesamelevelofinvestmentsaswind,whichtotalled$4.6bn.●Assetfinancingremainedthemainsourceoffundin

4、gforcleanenergyprojectsin2011with92%oftotalinvestmentor$9.5bn.Thisissignificantasthehigherlendingratesobservedoverthepastyearcouldhavenegativelyimpactedassetfinance.●Venturecapitalandprivateequitymadeastrongcomebackwith$425minvestedin2011comparedto$102min2010.Bothwindandsolarprojectde

5、veloperssuchasMytrahEnergyIndiaandKiranEnergySolarPowersucceededindoingdeals.●Indiawillunlikelyreplicatethisgrowthin2012andmayevenseeadeclineinnewinvestments.Fewersolarprojectswillneedtogetfinancedinordertomeetpolicytargetsandsolarequipmentwillcontinuetogetcheaper.Windassetfinancingwi

6、llalsobelessastheaccelerateddepreciationpolicyisexpectedtoendafter31March2012.●Thewindsectoraddedarecord2.8GWin2011comparedwith2.1GWin2010.Thiswasclosetoouroptimisticforecastof2.9GWandkeepsIndiaasthethirdlargestwindmarketintheworld.Intermsofsolarwebelievethatatleast0.26GWwasinstalledi

7、n2011,closetotheaverageofourconservativeandoptimisticforecasts.Weestimate0.5-0.8GWofsolarand2.5-3.2GWofwindcapacitywillbeaddedin2012.●Inits11thfiveyearplanrunningfromApril2007toMarch2012,Indiatargeted12.4GWofnewgrid-connectedrenewableenergy.Webelievethatthistargetwillbeexceededby14%wi

8、th14.