0198567626.Oxford.University.Press.USA.From.Cosmos.to.Chaos.The.Science.of.Unpredictability.Aug.2006

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1、FROMCOSMOSTOCHAOSThispageintentionallyleftblankFROMCOSMOSTOCHAOSTheScienceofUnpredictabilityPeterColesACACGreatClarendonStreet,OxfordOX26DPOxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford.ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship,andeducationbypublishingwor

2、ldwideinOxfordNewYorkAucklandCapeTownDaresSalaamHongKongKarachiKualaLumpurMadridMelbourneMexicoCityNairobiNewDelhiShanghaiTaipeiTorontoWithofficesinArgentinaAustriaBrazilChileCzechRepublicFranceGreeceGuatemalaHungaryItalyJapanPolandPortugalSingaporeSouthKoreaSwitzerlandThailandTurkeyUkraineVi

3、etnamOxfordisaregisteredtrademarkofOxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountriesPublishedintheUnitedStatesbyOxfordUniversityPressInc.,NewYork#OxfordUniversityPress2006ThemoralrightsoftheauthorhavebeenassertedDatabaserightOxfordUniversityPress(maker)Firstpublished2006Allrightsreserved

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5、thescopeoftheaboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,attheaddressaboveYoumustnotcirculatethisbookinanyotherbindingorcoverandyoumustimposethesameconditiononanyacquirerBritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationDataDataavailableLibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationDataColes,P

6、eter.Fromcosmostochaos:thescienceofunpredictability/PeterColes.p.cm.ISBN-13:978–0–19–856762–2(alk.paper)ISBN-10:0–19–856762–6(alk.paper)1.Science—Methodology.2.Science—Forecasting.3.Probabilities.I.Title.Q175.C615520065010.5192—dc222006003279TypesetbyNewgenImagingSystems(P)Ltd.,Chennai,IndiaP

7、rintedinGreatBritainonacid-freepaperbyBiddlesLtd.www.Biddles.co.ukISBN0–19–856762–6978–0–19–856762–213579108642‘TheEssenceofCosmologyisStatistics’GeorgeMcvittieAcknowledgementsIamverygratefultoAnthonyGarrettforintroducingmetoBayesianprobabili