中国财政政策经济增长效应的研究

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1、万方数据AbstractUndertheeffectof“TheAsianfinancialcrisis'’and‘'theUSsubprimemortgagecrisis”．theChinesegovernmentrolledoutproactivefiscalpolicytodealwiththeimpactofthecrisis．TherearesomecontroveriesaboutChina'sproactivefiscalpoliciesforChina’Seconomicgrowtheffect．Thispaperstudytherelationshipbetwe

2、enproactivefiscalpolicyandeconomicgrowthandtherelationshipbetweenproactivefiscalpolicyandtheeconomicconstructioncostchangebasedonChinesemacroeconomicdatabyusingcointegrationanalysisanderrorcorrectionmodel．StudiesshowthatproactivefiscalpolicyisindeedbroughttoChina'seconomicgrowthpullingpower,t

3、hispullingpowerofgrowthshouldmainlycomesfromthegovernmentleadinginvestment，andtheshort—termeffectisgreaterthanthatofitslong-termeffectforfiscalstimuluspolicy．Sothereistheriskofunsustainable．Thepaperputforwardrelevantshort-termandlong-termpolicySuggestionsfortheimplementationofactivefiscalpoli

4、cy,includingthattheproactivefiscalpolicyshouldcleartheshortmediumandlong．termgoals，todeterminetheroleofpolicydirectionandsize；Becausethepolicystimulusisunsustainable，itmusthaverelatedimplementationandexittimearrangement；Intheshorttermitshouldfocusontheproactivefiscalpolicytobringfinancialrisk

5、，economicgrowthriskandinflationrisk；Illthelong-termitneedtoformacleargoalofmacroeconomicregulation；Throughthefinancialexpendituresubsidypolicytopromoteindustrialupgradingandoptimizingtheindustrialstructure；itFocusesoninvestmentdemandandconsumptiondemandstructurecontradiction，avoidingtheeffect

6、oftheemergenceofinvestmentdependent；itshouldtOpayattentiontosustainablelong-terminvestmentstrengthdevelopment,activelypromotingthemarketmechanismallocatetheresource．Keywords：FiscalPolicy；EffectonEconomicGrowth；CointegrationAnalysis；ErrorCorrectionModel2万方数据目录第一章引言⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯

7、⋯⋯⋯⋯41．1选题背景⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯一41．2研究的意义与目的⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．41．3研究思路与方法⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．51．4创新与不足⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．5第二章文献综述⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．72．1国外研究综述⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．