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1、浙江大学硕士学位论文AbstractThestand-alonemicrogridintegratesdistributedgenerations，energystoragedevices，theregionalloadandcontroldeviceseffectively,toformasinglecontrolunit，whichhasbroadapplicationprospectsinthedevelopmentofislands，desertsandotherremoteareas．Intermsofabundantacc

2、essofintermittentrenewableenergygenerationandthelimitedsystemcapacity,itbringsrandomconsequencesofstand—alonemicropower妤dtospotlight．Therewouldbeconsiderablesignificancesandrequirementsonpracticaldevelopmentandconstructiontogainstableandefficientoperationofstand—alonemi

3、crogridbysettlingreasonablesystemcontrolstrategies．Accordingtothefluctuationshownfromthepracticaloperationonloadsandrenewableenergypowergeneration，whichaffectstheschedulingplanmadeinadvancetobeeffectivelyachieved，thisprojectfocusesonacoordinatingcontrollingstrategyofcon

4、trollablegenerationsactiveoutputforstand—alonemicrogrid，whichisbasedonultra--short·-termforecastingofloadsandrenewableenergypowergeneration．Firstly,thispapersummedupthedevelopmentandconstructionprocessofcurrentsystemofstand-alonemicrogrid，describedthetypicalstand-alonem

5、icrogridstructure，establishedofmathematicalmodelsofthecommondistributedgenerations；studiedthecontroltheoryofcontrollablegenerationsunderthecentralizedcontrolmode，takingintoaccounttomaximizeuseofavailablerenewableenergy，studieditsmaximumpowertrackingmodepowerprincipleand

6、method．Secondly,discussedthenecessityofrenewablepowergenerationandloadultra-·short·-termforecastinginastand—alonemicrogrid，proposedadirectpowerpredictionmethodbasedonleastsquaressupportvectormachinemethodofreal—timedatasequencebyanalyzingconventionalultra-short—termpowe

7、rsystemloadforecastingmethod．Consideringtheactualsituationofrenewableenergyintermittent，adoptedthesamemethodofloadforecastingtoachievetheultra-short-termforecastofwindgeneration；addedaIII浙江大学硕士学位论文Abstractsimilardayselectingtothemethodtoachievethedirectforecastofphotovo

8、ltaicpowergeneration．Third，proposedamulti—timescalemicrogridcontrolstrategyofstand--alonemicrogridthatincludes