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1、AreportfromtheEconomistIntelligenceUnitThesearchforgrowthBalancingyieldandriskinuncertaintimesSponsoredbyThesearchforgrowth2013BalancingyieldandriskinuncertaintimesContentsAboutthisreport2Executivesummary3Searchforgrowth:Globalscenariosfor20135Introduction61Globaleconomicoutlook:Te
2、mperedoptimism7Europe’schronicmalaise:Isthereasilverlining?82TheUScomeback?13TheresurgenceofUSmanufacturing133DifferentiationcomestotheforeinanAsianera17Currencyspotlight:Aracetothebottom?174Beyondcommodities:theMiddleEast,Africa20andLatinAmericaAreemergingmarketstoohottohandle?195
3、Conclusion:Therisksinherentinthesearchforgrowth24Appendix:Surveyresults251©TheEconomistIntelligenceUnitLimited2013Thesearchforgrowth2013BalancingyieldandriskinuncertaintimesAboutthisreportPreparingfor“blackswan”eventsisnotpossible,buttheirvaluablecontributions:athoroughunderstandin
4、goftherisksinourdiverselReubenAbraham,ExecutiveDirector,CentreforglobalmarketplaceprovidesagoodearlydetectionEmergingMarketSolutions,IndianSchoolofsystem.Thesearchforgrowth:BalancingyieldandriskBusiness,IndiainuncertaintimesisthethirdannualreportproducedlChandrajitBanerjee,Director
5、General,bytheEconomistIntelligenceUnitandsponsoredbyConfederationofIndianIndustry,IndiaBNYMellon.ThepaperdrawsontheperspectivesoflSteffenBassler,ChiefExecutiveOfficer,topinstitutionalinvestors,asitexplorestheglobalAllegraPartners,Switzerlandinvestmentenvironmentin2013.lChristopherBe
6、rry,Founder,HouseMountainAsanannualglobalsurvey,“ThesearchforPartners,USgrowth…”servesasayearlybarometerofinvestorlJosephBrusuelas,SeniorEconomist,sentimentregardingglobalrisksandscenariosBloomberg,USwiththepotentialtoaffectportfoliosandlTonyClark,ChiefExecutiveOfficer,BAVGroup,busi
7、nesses.IthighlightssurveyresponsesfromUnitedKingdom2013andyear-on-yearshiftsininvestorsentimentlMarkCortazzo,SeniorPartner,sinceour2011and2012surveys.MACROConsultingGroup,USTheEconomistIntelligenceUnitbearssolelMarkoDimitrijevic,Founder,EverestCapital,responsibilityforthereportandi
8、tscontent;theSingaporeview