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1、THEECONOMICCRISISINEASTASIA:CAUSES,EFFECTS,LESSONSByMartinKhorDirectorThirdWorldNetwork1.INTRODUCTIONTheEastAsianeconomiccrisisisprobablythemostimportanteconomiceventintheregionofthepastfewdecadesandforthenextfewdecades.Beyondthis,thereisyetnounanimityaboutitsrootcausesnoraboutthesolutio
2、ns.Thedifferencesofviewsarebeingdebatedinacademiccirclesandreflectedinthemedia.Onethingthoughiscertain:theearlieroptimisticexpectationthatitwouldlastonlysomemonthshasprovedwrong.Insteadthefinancialcrisishasbeentransformedintoafull-blownrecessionordepression,withforecastsofGNPgrowthandune
3、mploymentbecomingmoregloomyforaffectedcountries.Moreoverthethreatofdepreciationhasspreadfromafewcountriestomanyintheregion,andisspreadingtootherareassuchasRussia,SouthAfrica,andpossiblyEasternEuropeandSouthAmerica.2.THECAUSES,PROCESSESANDSOMEECONOMICEFFECTSOFTHECRISISThegreatdebateoncaus
4、esiswhethertheblameshouldbeallocatedtodomesticpoliciesandpracticesortotheintrinsicandvolatilenatureoftheglobalfinancialsystem.Inthefirstphaseofthecrisis,asitspreadfromThailandtoMalaysia,Indonesia,thePhilippines,thentoSouthKorea,theinternationalestablishment(representedbytheIMF)andtheG7co
5、untriesplacedtheblamesquarelyondomesticillsintheEastAsiancountries.Theycitedtheilljudgmentofthebanksandfinancialinstitutions,theover-speculationinrealestateandthesharemarket,thecollusionbetweengovernmentsandbusinesses,thebadpolicyofhavingfixedexchangerates(tothedollar)andtheratherhighcur
6、rentaccountdeficits.Theystudiouslyavoidedblamingthefinancialmarkets,orcurrencyspeculation,andthebehaviorofhugeinstitutionalinvestors.Thisviewwasdifficulttosustain.Foritimpliedthatthe"economicfundamentals"inEastAsiawerefatallyflawed,yetonlyafewmonthsorevenweeksbeforethecrisiserupted,theco
7、untrieshadbeenpraisedasmodelsofsoundfundamentalstobefollowedbyothers.Andin1993theWorldBankhadcoinedthetermtheEastAsianMiracletodescribethenowvilifiedeconomies.However,thererapidlydevelopedanotherviewofhowthecrisisemergedandspread.Thisviewputtheblameonthedevelopmentsoftheg
