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1、基于Logistic>Gompertz模型的圆齿野鸦椿幼苗生长模拟与分析于志民康文娟涂淑萍江西农业大学园林与艺术学院江西省水利规划设计研究院摘要：研究圆齿野鸦椿幼苗年生长节律，为制订合理的苗期管理制度提供理论依据。通过对圆齿野鸦椿一年生苗的苗高、地径生长状况进行持续观测，并利用Logistic、Gompertz模型及其最优组合模型对幼苗苗高、地径年生长规律进行拟合与分析。结果表明：圆齿野鸦椿幼苗苗高与地径生长节律符合“S”型曲线生长的一般规律，Logistic、Gompertz模型和最优组合模型均能较好的模拟圆齿野鸦椿幼苗的年生长
2、节律，但Logistic模型的拟合度（R2）较Gompertz模型拟合度更高，其对苗高、地径的拟合度分别达到0.988、0.985,而最优组合模型能够进一步提高拟合精度。圆齿野鸦椿幼苗生长具有明显的阶段性，苗高出现2次生长高峰，地径出现3次生长高峰，苗高速生期持续64d左右，速生期生长量占全年生长量的45.36%,地径速生期持续166d左右，速生期生长量占全年生长量的55.28%,利用Logistic模型，并结合苗木实际生长情况，将圆齿野鸦椿一年生苗年生长划分为4个时期：出苗期、生长初期、速生期和生长后期，并提岀各个吋期的关键育苗
3、措施。关键词：圆齿野鸦椿;生长节律;Logistic模型;Gompertz模型;最优组合模型;作者简介：于志民（1993—），男，硕士生，主要从事园林植物繁育与栽培研究,920283364@qq.com;作者简介：涂淑萍，教授，博士，jxtsping@163.com。收稿日期:2017-05-10基金：江西省林业厅科技创新专项（201402）SimulationofGrowthCurveBasedonNonlinearModelsofLogisticandGompertzforEuscaphiskonishiiSeedlinYUZ
4、hi-minKANGWen-juanTUShu-pingCollegeofLandscapeandArt,JiangxiAgriculturalUniversity;JiangxiProvincialWaterConverservancyPlanningandDesigningInstitue;Abstract：ThepurposeofthisstudywastofindtheemnueilgrowthrhythmofEuscaphiskonishiiseedlingandProvidetheoreticalbasisforfor
5、mulatingreasonableseedlingmanagementsystem.TheseedlingheightandstemdiameterofEuscaphiskonishiiseedlingweremeasuredandSimulatedwithnonlinearmodelsofLogistic,Gompetzandcombinatorialprediction,andthegrowthpcireimeterswereestimeited.Theresultshowedthatthegrowthrhythmshowe
6、da“S"typecurve;andthesegrowthcurveswereappropriatelyfitted,buttheLogisticmodelprovidedbetterfittingdegreethanGompetzmodel;thefittingdegreesofseedlingheightandstemdiameterwere0.988,0.985,andthecombinatorialpredictionmodelcouldfurtherimprovethefittingaccuracy.Seedlinggr
7、owthhadobviousstages,thepeakofseedlingheightgrowthappeared2times,andthatofstemdiametergrowthappeared3times.Thefast-growingstageofseedlingheightgrowthlastedabout64d,accountedforabout45.36%ofthewholeprocessofgrowth,andthefast-growingstageofstemdiametergrowthlastedabout1
8、66d,accountedforabout55.28%ofthewholeprocessofgrowth.AccordingtoLogisticmodelandcombinedwiththeactualgrowthofseedling,itsgro
