Markit Magazine Issue 10.pdf

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1、/6TalkingBusinessNourielRoubini–RésuméPresentRoubiniGlobalEconomics,co-founderandchairmanNewYorkUniversity’sSternSchoolofBusiness,professorofeconomicsCrisisEconomics:ACrashCourseintheFutureofFinancetobepublishedbyPenguin(2010)1998-2000WhiteHouseCouncilofEconomicAdvisors,senioreconomistforIn

2、ternationalAffairsUSTreasuryDepartment,senioradvisortotheUnderSecretaryforInternationalAffairsDrRoubinihaspublishedmorethan70policypapersoninternationalmacroeconomicissuesandco-authoredPoliticalCycles:TheoryandEvidence(1997)andBailoutsorBail-ins?RespondingtoFinancialCrisesinEmergingMarkets(

3、2004).HeholdsaPhDineconomicsfromHarvardUniversity.themarkitmagazine–Winter2010TalkingBusiness/7NourielRoubini,theUSeconomist,believesquantitativeeasingisanecessaryevilandthatcrisesarebecomingmorefrequentanddamagingCrisis?Whichcrisis?Q:Sincethestartoftheglobalcreditcrisis,governmentsIthinkre

4、centoppositiontoQE2,especiallythosethataroundtheworldhaveinjectedanunprecedentedhavesaiditisadisaster,istotallywrong.Giventhehighamountofliquidityintotheglobaleconomy.Theriskofadoublediprecession,askyourselfwherewouldinitialexperienceofquantitativeeasingsuggeststhattheeconomyandriskyassetpr

5、icesbetodayifthishadtheincreaseinliquidityispositiveforriskyassets.notbeendone.AssetpricereactionhadalreadypricedinHowever,theimpactontherealeconomyislessQE2fromBernanke’sspeechinJacksonHolewellaheadclear.Doyouthinkithasbeeneffectiveinstimu-oftheactualimplementation.Thestockmarketisaboutlat

6、inggrowthorshouldtheFederalReservebetaking10percenthigher.anotherapproach?RoubiniGlobalEconomicswroteapaperconcludingthatanotherroundofQEwasappropriate;weevengotA:EconomicgrowthintheUSandmostdevelopedecono-the$600bnestimatecorrectacoupleofweeksbeforethemiesisanaemicandbelowexpectations.Meas

7、uresofannouncement.Unfortunately,therealeconomiceffectsinflation,bothcoreandheadline,arebelowtheimplicitandofthismovearegoingtobemodestatbest.QE2shouldexplicittargetsoftheFederalReserve.Thescenarioislowpushindustrialoutputnextyearfromthebaselinebyonlygro