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ID:34223302
大小:5.22 MB
页数:76页
时间:2019-03-04
《微网系统负荷预测方法的研究》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。
1、微网系统负荷预测方法的研究江苏大学硕士学位论文ABSTRACTWithtlledet舐orationoftheglobalcnV的nmentandtheenergydD,ingup,anenVimmeIltany伍endlypower酣d也atuseScleanenergycalledmicro舒darisesatthehistoricmoment.Itmakesupforthe仃aditionalpowergrid’sdefectsthatitconsuInesalarge锄ountofcoalenergy,operatesatallighpriceaIldcan’tmeet也edem
2、andofelectricityinremoteareas.Themicm酣dguar锄teestllereliabilityofpowersupplyofgreatde伊ee.Streng协entheresearchofmicrogrid’sloadforecastingtecllIlologyisnot011lyaJlimpommtguamnteetoimproVetllemicrogrid’s11l衄iIlgperfbr妇1ance,butalsoaniIllportanttasktoputforwardtheele确cpowerinduStD,’sdeVelopmemofourc
3、ountU.Becauseof也es拄onguncertaintyofmemicmgrid,whenoperatinginisolatedway,itisin黟eatneedofamoreef!l’ectiVeshort—tennloadforecastingmodelto订ackt11echaIlgeoftheload.ItwillhelptopredictmeloadchaJlgeinadVaIlceaJldcoordillatet11edistributedpowergenerationaswellastheenergystoragecomponentinreaSonableope
4、ration.WeputforwardaforccastiI培modelcallodmultipleclaSsmersystemthatcomposodofBPnellralnetworkanduseditformoreaccllrateshort—tenll10adforecasting.Take4day’sloaddatai11amicro鲥dsystemalong谢th龇maXimumandmiIlimumt锄p∞amreof吐ledayaLs也e_盱ainingsample,aIldthenconstnlctthreeBPneuralnetworkclassifiers,acco
5、rdingtotheprinciplethate仃ectisinVerselyproportionalto也edistance,we6nallyobtaintheforecastresultsbyusingmsionalgoritllln.Themodeluses如siontechn0109ytoevademesin91eclassifier’sdisadVantageinpartialforecastiIlga11dimproVethereliabili够oftlleloadforecaSting.Inr锄Oteareas,tllemicrogridactionasaIlind印end
6、elltpowersupplysysteIlltoserVethe10calusers.WorkiIlgonmediumaIldlong-termlOadforecastingisadVantageoustoknowthe10cald锄andandarranget11emicro面dscaleformeelectricpowersta置Ⅵ,hichwillensurethestabilit),ofpowersupplyinmicro鲥d.Dueto也elesshistoricaldataofmediuma11dlong-temloadforecaLsting,plusmeVolamit)
7、,chmcteristicsofthemicrogridsystem,usingagreynem面networkmodelmatcombinesgreymodelwi也megeneralizedre蓼essionneuralne觚ork(GRNN)tooptimizetlleconVentional孕eymodel’sforecastingmethod.Tdkillg14years’锄ualloaddataandeachyear:s
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