George Friedman - The Next 100 Years_ A Forecast for the 21st Century (2009, Doubleday)

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1、Thisbookhasbeenoptimizedforviewingatamonitorsettingof1024x768pixels.THENEXT100YEARSAlsobyGeorgeFriedmanAMERICA’SSECRETWARTheFutureofWarTHEINTELLIGENCEEDGETHECOMINGWARWITHJAPANPOLITICALPHILOSOPHYOFTHEFRANKFURTSCHOOLTHENEXT100YEARSAFORECASTFORTHE21STCENTURYG

2、eorgeFriedmanDoubledayNEWYORKLONDONTORONTOSYDNEYAUCKLANDCopyright©2009byGeorgeFriedmanAllRightsReservedPublishedintheUnitedStatesbyDoubleday,animprintofTheDoubledayPublishingGroup,adivisionofRandomHouse,Inc.,NewYork.www.doubleday.comdoubledayandtheDDcoloph

3、onareregisteredtrademarksofRandomHouse,Inc.AllmapscreatedbyStratforBookdesignbyElizabethRendfleischLibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataFriedman,George.Thenext100years:aforecastforthe21stcentury/GeorgeFriedman.—1sted.p.cm.1.Internationalrelations—

4、21stcentury.2.Twenty-firstcentury—Forecasts.3.Worldpolitics—21stcentury—Forecasting.4.Internationalrelations—Forecasting.I.Title.II.Title:Nexthundredyears.JZ1305.F752009303.49—dc222008026423eISBN:978-0-385-52294-6v1.0ForMeredith,museandtaskmasterTohimwholo

5、oksupontheworldrationally,theworldinturnpresentsarationalaspect.Therelationismutual.—GeorgeW.F.HegelCONTENTSlistofillustrationsxiauthor’snotexiiiOverture:AnIntroductiontotheAmericanAge1CHAPTER1TheDawnoftheAmericanAge15CHAPTER2Earthquake:TheU.S.–JihadistWar

6、31CHAPTER3Population,Computers,andCultureWars50CHAPTER4TheNewFaultLines65xcontentsCHAPTER5China2020:PaperTiger88CHAPTER6Russia2020:Rematch101CHAPTER7AmericanPowerandtheCrisisof2030120CHAPTER8ANewWorldEmerges136CHAPTER9The2040s:PreludetoWar153CHAPTER10Prepa

7、ringforWar174CHAPTER11WorldWar:AScenario193CHAPTER12The2060s:AGoldenDecade212CHAPTER132080:TheUnitedStates,Mexico,andtheStrugglefortheGlobalHeartland223epilogue249acknowledgments255ListofIllustrationsAtlanticEurope20TheSovietEmpire25YugoslaviaandtheBalkans

8、33EarthquakeZone35IslamicWorld—Modern36U.S.RiverSystem41SouthAmerica:ImpassableTerrain43PacificTradeRoutes67SuccessorStatestotheSovietUnion71Ukraine’sStrategicSignificance72FourEuropes75Turkeyin200881OttomanE