基于优化bp神经网络的微博舆情预测模型研究

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1、AbstractWiththerapiddevelopmentofIntemettechnology,micro—bloghasbecomeanimportantpartofpeople’Slives．Publicopinioncausedbythemicro—blogattractsmoreandmorepeople’Sattention．Sincethemicro—bloginformation’Spropagationvelocityisquickly,spreadwidelyandarbitrarynatu

2、reofmicro—blog，SOtheinformationonthemicro-bloghastrueandfalse．Positiveandnegativemicro—blogpublicopinionwillhavedifferenteffectsonpeople’Slives，someofthenegativemicro—blogpublicopinionwillevenconstituteacrisis，thenaseriousimpactonpublicsafety．Therefore，thestud

3、yonpredictedmicro—blogpublicopinionhasapracticalsignificance．Predictedmicro—blogpublicopinion，wemustgetdatawhichCanbeexpressedmicro—blogpublicopinionfirstly．Thepaperusesthediscretetimeseriestodescribemicro—blogpublicopinion’Strends．Inthispaper,weuseSinamicro-b

4、logplatformforbackground，accordingthehotmicro—blogtopictextextraction，analysis，forecastmicro—blogpublicopinion．Gettimeseriesstep：one诵tllSinamicro—blogAPIinterface，accesstomicro—blogtogetmicro—blogtextinsometime；Second，accordingthecharacteristicsofthecorrespond

5、ingpretreatmentmicro—blogtext，usethemethodsofstatisticalmicro-blogtopicandfoundthatmicro—bloghottopic；Third，statisticalthenumberofrepliesandforwardingnumberofmicro—bloghottopicforsometime，andusethenumbertoconsistofpublicopinionpredictionmodel’Sexperimentaldata

6、．BPneuralnetworkCanbebetterfitthenonlinearvariationofmicro—blogpublicopinion’Stimeseries，whichcanbeusedtopredictthemicro—blogpublicopinion，buttherearesomelimitations：BPneuralnetwork’Slearningalgorithmhastheweaknessofforgettingthealreadylearningsamples．Whenther

7、eisnoiseinthesample，theremaycausepoorperformanceonB．Pneuralnetwork；BPneuralnetworkalsohasaslowspeedofconvergence，andeasytofallintolocalminima．Wedidtwotasks：First，changethenetwork’SstructuretoimproveBPneuralnetwork．BehindtheBPneuralnetworkinputlayerneurons，wead

8、dalayertostoretheinputlayer’Shistorydata．Whenthesampleshaveanoisedata，thelayercandelaynetworkparameterstoimprovetheperformanceofBPneuralnetwork．ThesecondistouseGSAtooptimizethenetw