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1、17.423//Causes&PreventionofWar//MITpoli.sci.dept.THENUCLEARREVOLUTIONANDWORLDPOLITICSBackgroundquestions:Wouldtheworldbebetteroffifnuclearweaponshadneverbeeninvented?Woulditbebetteroffifnuclearweaponswerenowabolished?I.THETECHNICALEFFECTSOFTHENUCLEARR
2、EVOLUTIONTechnologiesrarelyhavedecisiveeffectsonwarorpolitics;moreoftentechnologyisbenttoservepoliticsormilitarydoctrine.Nuclearweaponsareanexception.Theyoverwhelmpoliticsanddoctrine.Fivecascadingtechnicaleffectsflowfromthenuclearrevolution.Thesecasca
3、defurtherintopoliticaleffectslistedbelowinSectionIV.Thetechnicaleffectsare:A.Effect#1:hydrogenbombsofferanincreaseofsix(6,countthemsix)ordersofmagnitudeoverthepoweroftheTNTexplosivesusedinWorldWarII.Theatomicbomb=x1,000increaseonTNT;thehydrogenbomb=x1
4、,000increaseonatomicbombs.B.Effect#2:dueto'A'(thedestructivenessofnuclearweapons),the"costexchangeratio"vastlyfavorsdefenders(bettertermed"retaliators")overattackersseekingtodisarmthem.Nuclearweaponspacktremendousexplosivepowerindevicesthatarecheap,li
5、ght,easilyhidden,protected,anddelivered.Hencedestroyingnuclearweaponsisveryhard,protectinganddeliveringthemveryeasy.C.Effect#3:dueto'B'(thecost-exchangeratio),arelationshipofMAD("MutualAssuredDestruction")developsbetweenmajorpowers.Bothcandestroytheot
6、her'ssocietyevenafterabsorbinganall-outcounterforceattackbytheother.Inshort,bothhavea"secondstrikecountervaluecapability."IntheColdWar,boththeUSandUSSRsoughttoavertMAD,preferringinsteadtodenytheotherasecond-strikecountervaluecapability,buttheycouldnot
7、escapeit.Technologyoverrodetheirdesires.D.Effect#4:"flatofthecurve"dynamics.OneofMAD'sspecialcharacteristicsisthe"flatofthecurve":beyondacertainpoint,thecapacitytoinflictdamageontheothersociety,ortopreventdamagetoone'sown,isinelastictothesizeandcapabi
8、lityofone'sownforceorone'sopponent'sforce.Capabilitiesareabsolute.E.Effect#5:the"multipliereffect."Theefficiencywithwhichonesidemuststriketheother'sforcesinordertoleavetheotherunabletoinflictunacceptabledamageinretaliationincreasessharplyasthe
