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1、MarkovianSocialSecurityinUnequalSocietiesKaijiChenyZhengSongzUniversityofOsloFudanUniversityThisversion:January,2009AbstractInthispaper,wedevelopadynamicpolitico-economictheoryofsocialsecuritytoaddresstwoquestions.First,howissocialsecuritysustained?Second,howdoesineq
2、ualitya¤ectthesizeofsocialsecurity,andcanthetheoreticalpredictionsbeconsistentwiththeobservedpuzzlingrelationshipsbetweeninequalityandthesizeofsocialsecurity?Asastarkframework,ourmodeleconomyfeaturestheabsenceofaltruism,commitment,reputationmechanismandelectoraluncert
3、ainty.WecharacterizeanalyticallyaMarkovperfectequilibriumand…ndthatthejointbetweenMarkoviantaxpolicyandtaxdistortiononprivateinvestmentshapesanintertemporalpolicyrulelinkingtaxespositivelyovertime.Thepositiveintertemporaltaxlinkage,byallowingcurrenttaxpayerstoin‡uence
4、theirownfuturesocialsecuritybene…t,providesthepoliticalsupportforsocialsecurity.Moreover,we…ndthatalargerwageinequalityweakenstheintertemporaltaxlinkageand,thus,reducesinter-generationalredistributivebene…t.Thismayleadtoasmallersizeofsocialsecurity.Ourtheoreticalpredi
5、ctionsareinlinewithbothtime-seriesandcross-countrycorrelationsbetweeninequalityandsocialsecurity.JELClassi…cation:E60H55P16Keywords:IntertemporalTaxLinkage,MarkovPerfectEquilibrium,PoliticalEconomy,Redistribution,SocialSecurity,WageInequality.WethankJohnHassler,DirkN
6、iepelt,TorstenPersson,KjetilStoreslettenandFabrizioZilibottiforhelpfuldiscussions.yDepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofOslo,Box1095,Blindern,0371Oslo,Norway.Phone:(+47)22855495.Email:kaijic@econ.uio.nozSchoolofEconomics,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200433,China.Phone:(+86)21
7、65643514.Email:zsong@fudan.edu.cn1IntroductionFormostOECDcountries,unfundedsocialsecurityprogramsredistributeresourcesbothacrossgenerations(fromworkerstoretirees)andwithingenerations(fromtherichtothepoor).1Sinceinter-andintra-generationalredistributiveelementsareinter
8、twinedthroughasinglepolicyinstrument,thepoliticalchoiceonsocialsecuritynecessarilyinvolvesaninteractionofredistributiveconsi
