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1、中国环境科学2013,33(3)：491~502ChinaEnvironmentalScience基于ELCOM-CAEDYM模型的太湖蓝藻水华早期预测探讨12*112222王长友,于洋,孙运坤,李洪利,孔繁翔,张民,史小丽,阳振(1.南京信息工程大学海洋科学学院,江苏南京210044；2.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,江苏南京210008)摘要：结合太湖蓝藻水华形成的"四阶段理论",基于澳大利亚西澳大学水研究中心开发的ELCOM-CAEDYM耦合模型框架构建了太湖水华蓝藻生态动力学模型,对蓝
2、藻水华的形成进行模拟,分析了太湖蓝藻水华早期预测的可行性.结果表明:该模型在较长时间尺度上对春季复苏阶段及生长上浮阶段蓝藻水华的形成模拟效果较好,蓝藻生物量模拟值与站点调查值的误差变化范围在1.0%~70.4%,平均误差为28.0%,与MODIS卫星反演值的误差变化范围在3.8%~83.9%,平均误差40.5%;但越冬阶段蓝藻生物量模拟输出值与站点调查值的误差变化范围在3.0%~143.6%,平均误差为40.1%,与MODIS卫星反演值的误差变化范围在9.7%~118.4%,平均误差为48.8%,表明模型对蓝藻越冬过程模
3、拟能力还不强,应在蓝藻越冬机制模拟计算方面进一步改进,以满足蓝藻水华早期预测的需要.关键词：水华；蓝藻；ELCOM-CAEDYM；预测中图分类号：X524文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-6923(2013)03-0491-12ThediscussionoftheearlyforecastingofcyanobacteriabloomintheLakeTaihubasedonELCOM-CAEDYM12*11222model.WANGChang-you,YUYang,SUNYun-kun,LIHong-li,KONGFa
4、n-xiang,ZHANGMin,SHIXiao-li,2YANGZhen(1.SchoolofMarineSciences,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,Nanjing210044,China；2.StateKeyLaboratoryofLakeScienceandEnvironment,NanjingInstituteofGeographyandLimnology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Nanjing210008,Ch
5、ina).ChinaEnvironmentalScience,2013,33(3)：491~502Abstract：AnecologicaldynamicmodelforcyanobacteriabloominTaihuLakewasstructwedbasedonthetheoryof"fourphasesofcyanobacteriabloomdevelopment"andthecouplingmodelofELCOM-CAEDYMdevelopedbyCentreforWaterResearch,Universit
6、yofWesternAustralia.ThecyanobacteriabloomdevelopmentwasmodeledandthepossibilityforearlyforecastofcyanobacteriabloominTaihuLakewasdiscussed.Themodeloutputsmetwellwiththecyanobacteriabiomassinalargetemporalscalecoveringthephasesofanabiosis,growthandupfloat.Thediffe
7、rencesbetweenmodeleddataandfield-determined(orsurveyed)onesvariedintherange1.0%~70.4%withameanof28.0%.ThedifferencesbetweenmodeleddataandtheinferredonesfromMODISsatelliteimageryvariedintherange3.8%~83.9%withameanof40.5%.However,themodeloutputsweaklyreflectedthecy
8、anobacteriabiomassinthephaseofoverwintering,thedifferencesrangedfrom3.0%to143.6%withameanof40.1%betweenmodelingdataandthefield-determinedones,andfrom9.7%to118.
