Famous First Bubbles.pdf

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1、FamousFirstBubblesThispageintentionallyleftblankFamousFirstBubblesTheFundamentalsofEarlyManiasPeterM.GarberTheMITPressCambridge,MassachusettsLondon,England©2000MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans(inclu

2、dingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.ThisbookwassetbyBest-setTypesetterLtd.,HongKong.PrintedandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataGarber,PeterM.Famousfirstbubbles:thefundamentalsofea

3、rlymanias/PeterM.Garber.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferences(p.)andindex.ISBN0-262-07204-1(hc:alk.paper)1.Speculation—History.2.Tulipmania,17thcentury.3.Law,John,1671–1729.4.CompagniedesIndes—History.5.SouthSeaBubble,GreatBritain,1720.I.Title.HG6005.G372000332.63¢228—dc2100-027297Content

4、sPrefaceixITheBubbleInterpretation1IITheTulipmaniaLegend151APoliticalandEconomicBackground192TheTraditionalImageofTulipmania253WhereDoestheTulipmaniaLegendComeFrom?294EstablishmentAttitudestowardFuturesMarketsandShortSelling:TheSourceofthePamphlets335TheBubonicPlague376TheBrokenTulip39viCo

5、ntents7TheBulbMarket,1634–1637438SomeCharacterizationoftheData499Post-CollapseTulipPrices6110BulbPricesinLaterCenturies6511WasThisEpisodea“Tulipmania”?75IIITheMacroBubbles8512APreliminaryView:TheMississippiandSouthSeaBubbles8713JohnLawandtheFundamentalsoftheMississippiandSouthSeaBubbles911

6、4JohnLaw’sFinanceOperations9515ARehashofMississippiMarketFundamentals10516Law’sShadow:TheSouthSeaBubble10917SouthSeaFinanceOperations11518FundamentalsoftheSouthSeaCompany12119Conclusion123Appendix1:TheTulipmaniainthePopularandEconomicsLiterature127ContentsviiAppendix2:TheSeventeenth-Centur

7、yTulipPriceData133Notes145References149Index155ThispageintentionallyleftblankPrefaceBubbleslieattheintersectionbetweenfinance,econom-ics,andpsychology.Recentexplanationsoflarge-scaleassetpricemovementshaveleanedtowardplacingpsy-chologyfirstinthelist,notonlyforep