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1、第24卷第7期生态学报Vol.24,No.72004年7月ACTAECOLOGICASINICAJul.,2004CO2排放控制的动态宏观经济模拟分析1,21113王铮,郑一萍,蒋轶红,刘扬,孔祥德(1.华东师范大学地理信息教育部实验室,上海200062,2.中国科学院政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080,3.美国孟菲斯大学,TN38152)摘要:以Nordhaus-Pizer模型和Leimbach模型为基础,在新经济增长理论框架下,发展了一个气候保护分析的宏观经济动态模型,模拟分析了不同削减水平下我国温室气体排放的对我国GDP增
2、长和社会福利的影响,数值模拟发现:如果不推动减排,我国经济增长到2025年左右将失去优势。如果中国适当参加减排,采用每年控制少排放0.2%的水平,到2050年相对不控制将少排放10%,对中国经济发展最为有利,对全球气候保护也是一个贡献。关键词:CO2减排;气候保护;宏观经济模拟;中国DynamicmacroeconomicmodelingandanalysisofCO2abatement1,2111WANGZheng,ZHENGYi-Ping,JIANGYi-Hong,LIUYang,KUNGHsiang-Te(1.Laborato
3、ryofGeographicInformationScience,EastChinaNormalUniversity,MinistryofEducation,Shanghai200062,China;2.InstitutesofPolicyandManagement,ChineseAcademyofScience,Beijing100080,China;3.TheUniversityofMemphis,USA,TN,38152).ActaEcologicaSinica,2004,24(7):1508～1513.Abstract:Ba
4、sedontheNordhaus-PizerModelandLeimbachModelandwithinthetheoreticframeworkofneweconomicgrowth,thispaperpresentsadynamicmacroeconomicmodeltoanalyzetheimpactofgreenhousegases(GHG)emissioninChinaatdifferentreductionlevelsuponitsGDPgrowthandsocialwelfare.Thediscussionsregar
5、dingtheChina’sCO2emissionreductionfocusoncostandbenefitorwhethertheeconomiclosswillberecoveredbytheeconomicgainsfromthereductionofCO2.ThereisnoreasonwhyChinashouldabandonthosereductionmeasuresthatdolittleornoharmtotheeconomy.Throughthesimulationanalysisoftheinfluenceof
6、CO2emissionreductionuponthenationaleconomy,theauthorsofthepapersummarizethefollowing:(1)Accordingtothesimulation,theChinesenationaleconomicgrowthwilldeclinearound2025withouttheimprovementoftheGHGemissionreduction。(2)Thesimulationhaveindicatedthatthenationaleconomicgrow
7、thratewillremainatahighlevelwhenthegrowthrateofCO2emissiondropsby0.2%peryearorby10%attheyearafter50years.ItisfeasibleforChinatotakeaproperparticipationintheemissionreductionincertaincircumstances.(3)Toimplementtheemissionreductionpolicy,thehighertheCO2emissionreduction
8、rateis,thegreatertheChineseeconomywillbeoccurs.Thisimpactwillbemoreprofoundwiththepassageoftime.TheCO2emissioniscontr
