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1、分别为-22.35%、-3.12%、-7.61%、-11.55%、10.92%、15.11%、36.04%、-19.77%、1.03%、27.02%、36.69%、20.18%、-6.78%、39.22%、34.74%，平均增幅为9.98%；当气温升高2℃时，1976-1990年各年径流增幅分别为-8.71%、2.88%、-2.05%、-3.33%、19.32%、24.48%、20.20%、-33.84%、38.36%、34.94%、43.90%、28.91%、-1.27%、45.07%、38.86%，平均增幅为16.51%。降水的增加或减少对瓦赫什河流
2、域径流的影响比较小，各年总径流的变化不显著，而气温的变化与瓦赫什河流域径流的变化成正响应，当气温升高时，流域径流也呈现增加的趋势。由此可得，瓦赫什河流域径流对气温变化的响应比降水变化的响应更为显著。关键词：新安江模型；融雪径流；瓦赫什河流域；气候变化；水资源分布；塔吉克斯坦国IITheWaterResourcesofTAJIKISTANandRunoffResponsetoClimateChangeAbstractTajikistanhasabundantwaterresources,Waterresourcesaccountedformorethanh
3、alfofthetotalof3theentireregionofCentralAsia.ThetotalvolumeofthewaterresourcesofTajikistanisabout983.46km,mainlydistributedintherivers,glaciers,lakes,reservoirsandunderground.Thesurfacewaterresourcesoccupiesthe6.15percentoftotalwaterresources,glaciersmeltingforms85.92percentoftot
4、alwaterresources,waterresourcesinthelakesoccupiesthe4.47percentoftotalwaterresources,totalwatervolumeofreservoirsoccupiesthe1.56percentoftotalwaterresources,groundwaterresourcesoccupiesthe1.90percentoftotalwaterresources.Theglobalwarmingresultsinpolarandalpineglaciersareretreatin
5、g,sea-levelisrising,precipitationpatternsandrunoffischangingandsoon,andthisposesaseriousthreattoallmankindecologicalenvironmentsandsocialandeconomicdevelopment.TajikistanisanimportantwatersourceregioninCentralAsia,runoffmainlycomesfromsnowandglaciersanditoccupiesthelargerproporti
6、on.StudythehydrologyprocessoftheriverofthecountryandtheresponseofwaterresourcestoclimatechangehastheimportantsignificancetostudytheimpactofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesinCentralAsia,studytheXinjiangmountainriverglacierroleandtheriverresponsetoclimatechange.Inordertostudyrunoffres
7、ponsetoclimatechange,thisarticletakesVakhshRiverbasinofTajikistanastheresearcharea,usestheXinˊanjiangmodelcontainingthesnowmeltstructuretoconductmonthlyrunoffprocesssimulationoftheresearchareain1976-1985,andthentakesthemeasuredrunoffdatatoanalysistheresultofthemodel.Thesimulatedr
8、unoffprocesscanreflectthetrendoftheactua
