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1、ABSTRACTTitleofDocument:PROGNOSTICSANDHEALTHMANAGEMENTOFELECTRONICSBYUTILIZINGENVIRONMENTALANDUSAGELOADSNikhilM.Vichare,DoctorofPhilosophy(Ph.D.),2006DirectedBy:ChairProfessorandDirector,MichaelG.Pecht,DepartmentofMechanicalEngineeringPrognosticsandhealthmanagement(PHM)isamethodthatpermi
2、tsthereliabilityofasystemtobeevaluatedinitsactualapplicationconditions.Thusbydeterminingtheadventoffailure,procedurescanbedevelopedtomitigate,manageandmaintainthesystem.Since,electronicsystemscontrolmostsystemstodayandtheirreliabilityisusuallycriticalforsystemreliability,PHMtechniquesare
3、neededforelectronics.Toenableprognostics,amethodologywasdevelopedtoextractload-parametersrequiredfordamageassessmentfromirregulartime-loaddata.Asapartofthemethodologyanalgorithmthatextractscyclicrangeandmeans,ramp-rates,dwell-times,dwell-loadsandcorrelationbetweenloadparameterswasdevelop
4、ed.Thealgorithmenablessignificantreductionofthetime-loaddatawithoutcompromisingfeaturesthatareessentialfordamageestimation.Theload-parametersarestoredinbinswitha-prioricalculated(optimal)bin-width.ThebinneddataisthenusedwithGaussiankernelfunctionfordensityestimationoftheload-parameterfor
5、useindamageassessmentandprognostics.Themethodwasshowntoaccuratelyextractthedesiredload-parametersandenablecondensedstorageofloadhistories,thusimprovingresourceefficiencyofthesensornodes.Anapproachwasdevelopedtoassesstheimpactofuncertaintiesinmeasurement,model-input,anddamage-modelsonprog
6、nostics.Theapproachutilizessensitivityanalysistoidentifythedominantinputvariablesthatinfluencethemodel-output,andusesthedistributionofmeasuredload-parametersandinputvariablesinaMonte-Carlosimulationtoprovideadistributionofaccumulateddamage.Usingregressionanalysisoftheaccumulateddamagedis
7、tributions,theremaininglifeisthenpredictedwithconfidenceintervals.Theproposedmethodwasdemonstratedusinganexperimentalsetupforpredictinginterconnectfailuresonelectronicboardsubjectedtofieldconditions.Afailureprecursorbasedapproachwasdevelopedforremaininglifeprognosticsbyan
