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1、1PrologueTheProbableandtheCertainDoesyournextdoorneighbordriveabettercarthanyou?Ishemoreprominentthanyou?Nowtherealquestion:ishesmarterthanyou–ormerelyluckier?Coulditbethatheisdoingverywellpreciselybecauseheisstupid?Thisbookisaboutluckdisguisedandperceiveda
2、snon-luck(thatis,skills)and,moregenerally,randomnessdisguisedandperceivedasnon-randomness(thatis,determinism).Itmanifestsitselfinthebusinessworldintheshapeoftheluckyidiot–butweseeiteverywhereelse,thoughnotinsuchanaccentuatedandobviousmanner.Inpolitics,itcan
3、beencounteredintheshapeofacountry’spresidentdiscoursingonthejobsthat"he"created,"his"recovery,and"hispredecessor’s"inflation–thoughthesediscoursesgenerallyonlyfoolonesegmentofthepublic.Forinstance,onDecember19,1998,VicePresidentAlGorestoodupintherosegardena
4、nddeclared,fromtheauthorityofhispodium,thatPresidentClintoneliminatedthefederaldeficit.Nostatementcanmoreconvincinglyillustratetheneedforbetterunderstandingofrandomnessinoursociety.Thereasonwehavesomethingcalledscientificstandardsispreciselytopreventpeoplef
5、rommakingsuchtypeofstatement–byforcingthemtopresentevidenceshowingthatthesetwoelements(Clinton’selectionandthebudgetdeficit)arelinkedbymorethanmerecoincidence.ForwearegeneticallystillveryclosetoourancestorwhoroamedtheSavannah.Theformationofourbeliefsisfraug
6、htwithsuperstitions—eventoday(Imightsay,especiallytoday).Justasonedaysomeprimitivetribesmanscratchedhisnose,sawrainfalling,anddevelopedanelaboratemethodofscratchinghisnose,welinkeconomicprosperitytosomeratecutbytheFederalReserveBoard,orthesuccessofacompanyw
7、iththeappointmentofthenewpresident"atthehelm".Bookstoresarefullofbiographiesofsuccessfulmenandwomenpresentingtheirspecificexplanationonhowtheymadeitbiginlife(wehaveanexpression,"therighttimeandtherightplace"toweakenwhatconclusioncanbeinferredfromthem).Thisc
8、onfusionstrikespeopleofdifferentpersuasions:theliteratureprofessorinvestsadeepmeaningintoamerecoincidentaloccurrenceofwordpatterns,whilethefinancialstatisticianproudlydetects"regularities"and"anomalies
