the monetary approach to china’s balance of payment surplus--an empirical analysis

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1、学校代码：10036捌矽}芗重f节贸易声学UniversityofInternationalBusinessandEconomics硕士学位论文TheMonetaryApproachtoChina，sBaIanteofPaymentSurpIUS——AnEmpiricaIAnaIysis培养单位：国际经济贸易学院专业名称：金融学研究方向：InternationalFinance作者：陈吴宇指导教师：林桂军论文日期：二。一四年二月学位论文原创性声明～II／【llll@flllllllillll了llllll强lllllll

2、lllll弘llllllllllll学位论文作者签名：节襄寻沙f峙年厂月&日学位论文版权使用授权书本人完全了解对外经济贸易大学关于收集、保存、使用学位论文的规定，同意如下各项内容：按照学校要求提交学位论文的印刷本和电子版本；学校有权保存学位论文的印刷本和电子版，并采用影印、缩印、扫描、数字化或其它手段保存论文；学校有权提供目录检索以及提供本学位论文全文或部分的阅览服务；学校有权按照有关规定向国家有关部门或者机构送交论文；学校可以采用影印、缩印或者其它方式合理使用学位论文，或将学位论文的内容编入相关数据库供检索；保密的学位

3、论文在解密后遵守此规定。学雠文作者签名：阳b噌年f月S日剥醛各聿俅每J，¨lLf铴眦日ABSTRACTSince1994，China’Sbalanceofpaymentsexperiencedcontinuous“doublesurplus‘accompaniedwithhigheconomicgrowthrate．AccordingtothevJewoftraditionalKeynesiantheory，fasteconomicgrowthwilldeterioratethebalanceofpayments，but

4、thisdoesnotconformtoChina’Ssituation．Afteryearsofcontinuousbalanceofpaymentssurplus，foreigncountrieshaverequestedtheRMBtoappreciate，butthepolicyhasnotchangedthestatusofChina’Sinternationalbalanceofpaymentssurplus．Underthemonetaryapproachtheory，thisarticlewiltesth

5、owtheRMBexchangerateandeconomicgrowthcanaffectthebalanceofpaymentsthroughestablishingmoneydemandfunctioninchina，andaccordingtotestresults，policyrecommendationswillbeproposedtoadjustthebalanceofpayments．Thispaperwillelaboratethetheoryofmonetaryapproach，whichsugges

6、tsthattheimbalanceofbalanceofpaymentsisduetotheimbalanceofmoneymarket，andthattheincreaseordecreaseforeignexchangereservesisduetotheimbalanceofmoneysupplyandmoneydemand，thatacountry’Srapideconomicgrowthwillleadtobalanceofpaymentssurplus，andthattheformationofthebal

7、anceofpaymentssurplusisduetofasteconomicgrowth’Sinfluenceoverthemoneymarket．Usingthedataofthefirstquarterof2000tofirstquarterof2012，amoneydemandfunctionisestablishedtoanalyzehowdomesticmoneydemandisaffectedbyeachvariable，includingincomelevelandpricelevel，also，RMB

8、exchangerateisintroducedintothedemandfunctiontoexaminehowRMBappreciationaffectdomesticmoneydemand，and，throughCO—integrationanalysis，moredetailedreasonsarefound