南海海岛风资源评估与五十年一遇最大风速的风机选型

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1、万方数据ABSTRACTIslandsinSouthChinaSeaarefarawayfromthecontinent．Theresidentsontheseislandrelyondisselpowergeneration，whichisnotreliableespeciallywithadverseclimatepresent．Withthedevelopmentofwindpowergenerationandextensiveapplicationofsmallwindturbines．itiSfeasibl

2、etoestablishwindfarmsontheIslandofSouthChillaSea．．theweatherdataofDongshaisland，YongxingIsland，ShanhuIsland，andTaipingIslandareinvestigatedinthisthesistoevaluatewindpowerresourceoftheseislandsandidentifythesitemachingwindturbines．Themeteorologicalobservationdat

3、aoftheinvestigatedstationsfrom1996to2012areanalyzed．TheChi-squaretestandRMSEtestareutilizedtoidentifytheprobabilitydistributionofwinddatabyapplyingWeibullandReyleighdistribution．ItisuncoveredthattheprobabilityofwinddataCanbefittedwellwiththeWeibulldistribution．

4、ThetwoparametersWeibulldistributionisutilizedtoevaluatewindresources(includingwindspeedandwindpowerdensity)ofinvestigatedstations．Thepotentialwindpowergenerationofseveralwindturbinesarecalculatedaccordingtohistoricalwinddatafrom1996to2012andpowercurvesofspecifi

5、cwindturbines．ItisuncoveredthattheFL一30windturbineoutperformtheotherinpotentialwindpowergeneration．TheseasonalvariationofwindpowergenerationofFL-30areanalyzed，too．Thedailymaximawinddatafrom1996to2012areextracted．Thefrequencyofextremewindareanalyzed．TheProbabili

6、tyPlot，Quantile-QuantilePlotandrecurrencedensityfunctionplotareutilizedtodiagnoseapplicabilityofthegeneralizedParetodistribution．Theremainingfunctiondiagramareutilizedtodeterminethethresholdandthemaximumlikelihoodapproachareutilizedestimatetheextremewindspeedof

7、50-yearrecurrenceinterval．Numericalsimulationshowsthattheextremewindof50·yearrecurrenceintervalinYongxingandShanhuislandare42．25m／sand42．04rn／，respectively．Theclass11windturbineissuitableaccordinftoIEC．Theextremewindof50一yearrecurrenceintervalinDongshaislandis3

8、5．3m／sandClass111windturbineissuitable．Theextremewindof50-yearrecurrenceintervalinTaipingislandis45．38rn／sandtheclassSwindturbineisapplicable．Keyword：Windpowerevaluation；Wei