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1、1.ThefollowingappearedaspartofanannualreportsenttostockholdersbyOlympicFoods,aprocessoroffrozenfoods.“Overtime,thecostsofprocessinggodownbecauseasorganizationslearnhowtodothingsbetter,theybecomemoreefficient.Incolorfilmprocessing,forexample,thecostofa3-by-5-i
2、nchprintfellfrom50centsforfive-dayservicein1970to20centsforone-dayservicein1984.Thesameprincipleappliestotheprocessingoffood.AndsinceOlympicFoodswillsooncelebrateitstwenty-fifthbirthday,wecanexpectthatourlongexperiencewillenableustominimizecostsandthusmaximiz
3、eprofits.”Citingfactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustrythatindicateadownwardtrendinthecostsoffilmprocessingovera24-yearperiod,theauthorarguesthatOlympicFoodswilllikewisebeabletominimizecostsandthusmaximizeprofitsinthefuture.Insupportofthisconclusionthea
4、uthorcitesthegeneralprinciplethat“asorganizationslearnhowtodothingsbetter,theybecomemoreefficient.”Thisprinciple,coupledwiththefactthatOlympicFoodshashad25yearsofexperienceinthefoodprocessingindustryleadstotheauthor’srosyprediction.Thisargumentisunconvincingb
5、ecauseitsuffersfromtwocriticalflaws.First,theauthor’sforecastofminimalcostsandmaximumprofitsrestsonthegratuitousassumptionthatOlympicFoods’“longexperience”hastaughtithowtodothingsbetter.Thereis,however,noguaranteethatthisisthecase.Nordoestheauthorciteanyevide
6、ncetosupportthisassumption.Justaslikely,OlympicFoodshaslearnednothingfromits25yearsinthefood-processingbusiness.Lackingthisassumption,theexpectationofincreasedefficiencyisentirelyunfounded.Second,itishighlydoubtfulthatthefactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingi
7、ndustryareapplicabletothefoodprocessingindustry.Differencesbetweenthetwoindustriesclearlyoutweighthesimilarities,thusmakingtheanalogyhighlylessthanvalid.Forexample,problemsofspoilage,contamination,andtimelytransportationallaffectthefoodindustrybutarevirtually
8、absentinthefilm-processingindustry.Problemssuchasthesemightpresentinsurmountableobstaclesthatpreventloweringfood-processingcostsinthefuture.Asitstandstheauthor’sargumentisnotcompelling.To
