极端降水条件下梯级水库漫坝风险分析

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1、三峡大学全日制专业学位硕士学位论文regionofupstreamreservoirortheextremeprecipitationhappenedintheintervalbetweenupstreamreservoiranddownstreamreservoir,finallygetthecalculationmethodofthecombinationriskrateofcascadereservoir.Theresearchshowthatthemostunfavorablesituationistheextremeprecipitationhappenedintheinte

2、rvalbetweenupstreamreservoiranddownstreamreservoirwhichhasenormousinfluencetowholecascadereservoirandseriouslythreatthesafetyoffloodcontrolsystemtocascadereservoirs.Keywords:ExtremeprecipitationcascadereservoirRiskanalysisUncertaintyfloodovertoppingIV万方数据三峡大学全日制专业学位硕士学位论文UU目录1绪论.................

3、...............................................................................................21.1研究背景及意义...................................................................................21.2国内外研究现状...................................................................................31.3主要研究内容及技术

4、路线...................................................................52漫坝风险分析的基本理论及计算方法........................................................72.1风险分析的基本理论...........................................................................72.2风险分析的程序及主要内容.................................................

5、..............82.3风险分析的计算方法.........................................................................102.4本章小结.............................................................................................163梯级水库漫坝风险分析..............................................................................173

6、.1风险因素的识别与概率分布分析.....................................................173.2梯级水库漫坝风险计算模型.............................................................203.3本章小结.............................................................................................224极端降水事件研究....................................

7、..................................................234.1极端降水基本理论.............................................................................234.2极端降水概率分布分析.....................................................................