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1、2ChineseShaleGas&PerspectivesforRussianGasExportstoChinaMTOE•Globalprimaryenergydemandrisesfromaround12700milliontonnesofoilequivalent(Mtoe)in2010to17150Mtoein2035,anincreaseof35%.•Naturalgasdemandincreasesintheperiodto2020bymorethan700bcm(comparedwith2010levels),theequivalentofad
2、dinganotherUnitedStatestotheglobaldemandbalance,andbyafurther1.1tcmintheperiodfrom2020to2035,reachingatotalof5.1tcm(4230Mtoe)in2035.•By2035,naturalgashasovertakencoaltobecomethesecondmostimportantfuelintheenergymix.3Source:IEA,WEO2012,GoldenRulesforaGoldenAgeofGas16000140001200010
3、0008000Worldprimaryenergydemandandroleofnaturalgas1800060004000200002010CoalOilGasNuclear2020HydroBiomass2035Otherrenewables•Shareofnaturalgasintheprimaryenergymix•ofChinais4.5%in2011.Ambitioustargetistodoubletheshareofgas(8%)intheprimaryenergymixofChinaby2015.•NaturalgasisChinese
4、energymixin2011andshareofgasin20154Source:BPStatisticalYearbook2012consistentlysubstitutingcoal.70,4%4,5%17,7%0,7%6,0%0,7%OilNuclearenergyNaturalgasHydroelectricityCoalRenewables511239823276322114BCM%Worldgasproductionandshareofunconventional•IntheGoldenRulesCase,globalgasproducti
5、ongrowsbyaround55%,from3.3tcmin2010to5.1tcmin2035.Overthesameperiod,unconventionalgasproductionincreasesfromaround470bcmin2010tomorethan1.6tcmin2035.•Althoughunconventionalgasoutputgrowsrelativelyslowlyintheearlypartoftheprojectionperiod,reflectingthetimerequiredfornewproducingcou
6、ntriestodevelopcommercialproduction,fortheprojectionperiodasawhole,unconventionalgasrepresentsnearlytwo-thirdsofincrementalgassupply.•Theshareofunconventionalgasintotalgasproductionincreasesfrom14%in2010to32%in2035.5Source:IEA,WEO2012,GoldenRulesforaGoldenAgeofGas30002000100006000
7、500040002010202020356050403020100100908070WorldgasproductionShareofunconventionalWorldunconventionalnaturalgasproduction••Ofthedifferentsourcesofunconventionalsupply,tightgas,at245bcm,accountedforjustoverhalfofglobalunconventionalproductionin2010.However,itisrapidlyovertakeninproj
8、ectionsbyproductionofshalegas,whi
