【7A文】Trends in the oil service market.ppt

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1、Trendsintheoilservicemarket–haveweseenthebottom?11thJune2009AndreasStubsrudDirect:+4724312116Mobile:+4791797565Email:andreas.stubsrud@pareto.no2SummaryOildemanddown3%in2009,downmarginalin2008Oilconsumptionhasnotshrunktwoyearsinarowsinceearly1980sOi

2、linventoryatrecordhighlevelsOECDinventoryat62days,avglast5years52daysOPECcutsworking4.5mb/dcutsofar,sparecapactyaround6mb/dHOWEVER,oilpriceisreboundingFearofoil“shortage”inthefuture:“Easy”oilishistory,thehuntforthenextbarrelisexpensiveAgainwewillunde

3、rinvestSpendingprojectedtodecreaseby10%to15%in2009However,anincreasingoilpricewillagainspurinvestmentsRigCountincreasedby7unitsto993rigsinMaycomapredtoApril.OilpricewentfrommidUSD50stomidUSD60perbarrelTheoilmarketlookschallengingwithlowdemand,highinv

4、entoryandhighsparecapacityHOWEVER,oilpriceisreboundingonfearsof“shortage”ofoilinthefutureTheresultisagainunderinvestment'sintheoilmarket.Butahigheroilpricewillspurinvestments,andwemightalreadyhaveseenthebottomandseecontractsagainbeingsignedintheoilse

5、rvicemarket3TableofcontentsOilmarket–whyownoilserviceOilservicemarket–spendingtrendsOilservicemarket–nomoreeasyoilRigmarket–whyowndeepwaterexposure?SignificantratedropreflectedinUDWdrillersAttractivecompaniesConclusionAppendix4Oilmarket:YearOfTheOver

6、shootEst.’09-10rangeUSDOilprice,BrentSource:ParetoSecuritiesest.”PeakOil”overshoot”DemandDestruction”overshoot5Megatrend:OildemandpercapitaisrisingoutsideOECDShareofworldpopulationShareofworlddemandOECDNon-OECDSource:IEA6Timeis(less)moneyUSDSource:Bl

7、oombergContango(forwardprice>spot)Backwardation(forwardprice

8、inancialcrisisbutQ2’09islikelytobethelowpoint.Downturniscyclical,notstructural,andshouldrevivewitheconomy-eventually.Supply:Islikelytostaylowin2H‘09asOpeckeepscompliancehigh.Non-Opecchallengesexpectedtointensify.Downsiderisks:Prolongeddemandslumpwoul