滦河潘家口水库控制流域干旱等级预测分析

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1、warning.FromhightolowontheforecastprecisionofthemodelfordroughtclassesisNon-drought,Moderate,Severe/extremeandNearnormal.Andtheprecisionhasasignificantrelationshipwiththestableconditionofdroughtclasses.Theforecastingabilityisstrongwhenthedevelopmentofdroughtclassesisrelativelystabl

2、e,anditisweakwhenthereisasharpchangeorincreasingofdroughtclasses.Basedonthephasespacereconstruction,theVolterrafunctionseriesandtheVolterraadaptivefilteralgorithm(NLMS),aVolterraadaptivefilterpredictionmodelwasestablished.Themodelpracticeoflong-leaddroughtforecastingiseffectiveandt

3、heresultsshowthatthemethodhashighforecastprecision,whichcanbeusedtoprovidemoreinformationsupportforthemediumandlongtermdecisionsorplansofwaterresourcessystem.Keywords:PanjiakouReservoircatchment;droughtclassprediction;three-dimensionalloglinearmodel;weightedMarkovchain;Volterraadap

4、tivefilter目录第一章绪论........................................................11.1研究背景与意义.........................................................................................11.2干旱评价指标研究进展..............................................................................21.3干旱预测模型研究进展...

5、...........................................................................41.3.1模型的输入变量...............................................................................51.3.2干旱预测的方法...............................................................................61.4研究内容...............

6、......................................................................................9第二章潘家口水库控制流域区概况....................................112.1流域概况....................................................................................................112.2流域测站分布........................

7、....................................................................112.3流域历史旱情概况.....................................................................................122.4水文资料的处理........................................................................................132.4.1气象水文数据...

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